Rory McIlroy
Move out of the way Tiger Woods. Your time is up.
As a new PGA Tour season dawns this week in Hawaii at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, many golf fans and observers believe Woods is on the verge of a comeback in 2012, a career renaissance that puts to rest his two years of mostly poor results (by his standards) and messy personal matters.
Their justification is sound enough. Woods started playing more like his old self last fall, with the changes to his golf swing under Canadian coach Sean Foley finally coming to fruition.
They point to his improved health. Woods, hobbled by knee, shin and ankle injuries for years, has said he's practising and playing free of pain again.
They note his victory in his most-recent start, at the limited-field Chevron World Challenge last December.
Some of his peers also foresee a return to greatness. Fellow American Bubba Watson said he sees a different Woods even in the way he walks and smiles.
"That's what's scary for us pros," Watson said. "I think we're going to see the Tiger Woods of old back again."
All very well and good. And valid to an extent. But it's overly simplistic to assume Woods can will his way back to the top, or that the rest of the players will just lay down and let him.
There's a new crop of unbelievable talent, led by Rory McIlroy, that does not cower in Woods's presence. They see him as another top rival but not unbeatable. They've won big events themselves already.
Woods senses their presence.
"The young guys coming through are practising harder and training harder than ever before and raising the bar," said Woods, ranked No. 23 in the world. "I think the level of consistency I had a few years ago would see me climb back up the rankings pretty quickly, but I do think there are some pretty phenomenal golfers out there that I really respect."
Statistics show larger concerns. Woods no longer hits the ball far relative to the field (71st in driving distance on the PGA Tour last year) and he's wildly inaccurate off the tee (186th). He's not getting his approach shots close to the hole (63rd) and he's lost his uncanny ability to make every one of those crucial putts that produce low scores (105th in putts made from five to 10 feet). His bunker play is miserable (175th in sand-save percentage).
While he's always been able to cover up his oft-erratic tee shots, the short-game shortcomings are new – and a big roadblock on his comeback trail.
The more likely scenario this year – and beyond – is for Woods to climb back into the top 10 of the world ranking and be a factor on Sundays more than he has been in the past two years. He'll win, surely. Maybe even a major title. But at 36, it seems unlikely he'll return to his former dominance, to those years when the 71-time PGA Tour winner needed a second hand to count his annual victories.
Men's professional golf is at a turning point, when the older guard, which includes Woods but also Phil Mickelson, Jim Furyk and Ernie Els, is giving way to a new generation of stars.
Such generational turnovers are inevitable in any sport. It's golf's turn now.
This will be a year when the game's most dominant player of his generation, and perhaps golf history, has some company.
Woods is exactly the kind of fierce competitor who could defy the odds and turn back time – never say never with him – but the coincidence of his slipping skills and the rise of new talent is impossible to ignore.
While some fans may lament the end of Woods's era of dominance, it's an exciting time. The race to determine the next great one has begun.
With reports from The Associated Press and msn.foxsports.com
HEIRS TO THE THRONE
Rory McIlroy seems like the most obvious successor to Tiger Woods's crown.
Already a major tournament winner and No. 2 in the world ranking, the 22-year-old from Northern Ireland has the best swing in golf, one that is built to last, and his confidence and even cockiness run contrary to his boyish, mop-topped looks.
As a Sports Illustrated panel suggested in previewing the 2012 season, McIlroy could very well become the Jack Nicklaus to Woods's Arnold Palmer. But McIlroy isn't the only contender to succeed Woods as the big man of his generation. Golf is flush with possible heirs:
Young guns: Jason Day, a 24-year-old Australian who was the runner-up in two majors last year. Rickie Fowler, a 22-year-old American whose prospects are as bright as his Puma-sponsored clothing if he can learn to close. Bud Cauley, a 21-year-old American who played his way on to the PGA Tour this year straight out of college, without going through Q-school.
Proven twentysomethings: 2011 Masters champion Charl Schwartzel. 2011 PGA Championship winner Keegan Bradley. Breakout money spinner Webb Simpson. 2010 PGA winner Martin Kaymer.
Modern prototypical pro: Nick Watney. Bill Haas. Hunter Mahan.
In their prime: Luke Donald, world No. 1. Adam Scott, a career underachiever who's game has blossomed, ironically enough, since he took on Woods's former caddy, Stevie Williams, last year.
Pure athletes: Dustin Johnson, who can dunk a basketball. Gary Woodland, who used to play basketball at the U.S. college level.
Comeback hopefuls: Anthony Kim. Sergio Garcia.
Asian wave: Ryo Ishikawa, 20, of Japan. A handful of K.J. Choi-inspired South Koreans, led by Noh Seung-yul, also 20.
FIVE TOURNAMENTS TO WATCH IN 2012
Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship, Jan. 26-29
Instead of his usual season start in California, Tiger Woods will begin his 2012 schedule in the United Arab Emirates against a world-class field that includes world No. 1 Luke Donald, U.S. Open champion Rory McIlroy and defending champion Martin Kaymer. This will be the first of many weeks when the European Tour event eclipses its PGA Tour counterpart in importance and star power.
Masters, April 5-8
The PGA Tour launched its calendar this week in Hawaii at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, but for many fans the golf season doesn't truly begin until the first Thursday in April. The trend lately has been for lesser-known players to leave Augusta National with the green jacket. Who's the next Charl Schwartzel (2011) or Angel Cabrera (2009)? Or will an old favourite like four-time winner Woods or three-time champion Phil Mickelson resurface?
Manulife Financial LPGA Classic, June 21-24
Scheduled for the Grey Silo Golf Club in Waterloo, Ont., the new LPGA Tour event gives Canadian golf fans another chance to see the women's game. They deserve it after making the CN Canadian Women's Open such a strong event. The new tournament might not be biggest or best of the LPGA season, but it's a sign the tour is blossoming again after years of struggles. Three other new events have been added this year as well.
RBC Canadian Open, July 26-29
Hamilton Golf and Country Club will stage the national championship for the fifth time. Jim Furyk won the last playing there, in 2006. The Canadian Open has gained momentum in recent years largely because of a decision by organizers to rotate the tournament around the country to classic gems such as Hamilton. Although the event retains its tough date immediately following the British Open, the course itself should draw a strong field. PGA Tour players love Hamilton.
Ryder Cup, Sept. 26-28
The intensity and jingoism at this biennial event seem to be escalating with each playing. It should go up another notch this year, with the competition held at Medinah Country Club near Chicago, as the Americans look to avenge their defeat to the Europeans in Wales in 2010. European golf is super strong these days, but there are enough emerging U.S. stars to make this a slugfest.
CANADIANS TO WATCH IN 2012
Looking back: Jeff Brooke makes a list of his favourite 11 courses he played in 2011. Although some were in far-flung and tropical places, his top pick was close to home.
Looking ahead: Channelling Carnac the Magnificent, we make some bold predictions for the year ahead. A new world No. 1 in men's golf and a run at the Grand Slam in women's golf are in the cards.