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Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday we ask the Globe's roster of hockey writers to weigh in on an issue from the world of puck.

Today we ask the guys to do a little fearless prognosticating.

The question: Now that we've had a chance to watch just over half the regular season, which two teams make the most sense as a Stanley Cup final matchup?

ROY MACGREGOR

That's the easiest question imaginable: NO two teams. If the recent history of the Stanley Cup playoffs has taught us anything it is that the unpredictable will happen. Philadelphia Flyers will back into the playoffs courtesy of a last-moment shootout and go all the way to the final. The Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup. It's not always Detroit Red Wings vs. The New Jersey Devils....whoooops, did I actually say "New Jersey Devils"?

That may be the one certainty in the Eastern Conference this year: the Devils won't be there. In the West you can also lop off non-contenders, the Edmonton Oilers, ironically, the happiest team in all of hockey not to be going into the playoffs.

The best two teams at this moment are the Philadelphia Flyers (East) and the Vancouver Canucks (West). The Flyers have hockey's longest history of suspect goaltending (no Cup since Bernie Parent) and the Canucks have hockey's most curious history of suspect goaltending when it matters most. Not sure I'd bet on either.

So all we are left with are personal hunches, which with a few dollars will buy you a burnt coffee at Starbucks. Washington Capitals are supposed to prove their mettle this year by finally winning, but they don't look all that strong and Alexander Ovechkin appears to have lost the ability to finish - at least temporarily. I would bet on a healthy Boston team from the east, based on hunch alone. In the west, it's hard, always, to count Detroit out, but let's do so just for fun. My hunch is Dallas, simply because they seem to believe in themselves. No other reason.

The best series, once again, will be in the first and second rounds. It's simply the way it is in hockey playoffs, year after year after year.



JEFF BLAIR

Oh come on, Roy. Nobody's going to hold you to this.

Let's say Detroit and Philadelphia. I think the Canucks will choke - I don't trust Roberto Luongo - and the Flyers depth gives them the edge in the East.



SEAN GORDON

Can't agree Roy, there is a matchup that makes perfect sense from a quality-will-win-out standpoint, and it involves the two best teams in the NHL: the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Detroit Red Wings.

Yeah, the Canucks look good, as do Philly, and Dallas, but the Pens and Wings are lurking near the top of the standings despite being ravaged by injuries - think a Datsyuk or a Crosby will benefit from having three weeks or a month off during the dog days of the season? The Cup final everyone wants to see - Sid versus Ovie for all the marbles - can't happen, but a Thrilla in Pittsburgha Pt. III would be a fine consolation, not least because it would be a conclusive rubber match pitting two teams led by players who have actually won something in the recent past (sorry Caps, Canucks, Flyers, etc.).

The Wings have proven goaltending is more or less irrelevant to their hopes, which is a nice position to be in. Pittsburgh is an easy choice given their core of superstars and the fact they're better on the back end than when they won two years ago.

If there's one thing recent precedent has shown it's that winning the President's Trophy is essentially a harbinger of playoff failure (only the Wings and Avs have survived The Curse in the last decade), so Alain Vigneault may want to sit some regulars in April if it looks like his boys are going to finish first overall. Although it likely doesn't matter - I look at the 'Nucks and I see San Jose circa 2008-09.



MICHAEL GRANGE

This is excellent: Three answers already and no one has taken to best one! I'll put my vote in for Vancouver-Washington.

Vancouver for the obvious reason - they have been the best performing team in the NHL since the season started, pretty much, and they deserve credit for that. They have the requisite playoff heartbreak to learn from; as much as people like to poke fun, it's a testament to Luongo's ability that people think he should be able to lead a team to the Cup and they're still not at full strength.

As for Washington? They still have President's Trophy talent and I, for one, would not be surprised if they turn up the heat post all-star game. Maybe a late season coaching change could help that, but it's just as likely they get hot and deliver on their potential as they fade away into disappointment; they proved at the Winter Classic they're capable of raising their game, however briefly.



ALLAN MAKI

Book your hotel reservations now: Vancouver vs. Pittsburgh for the 2011 Stanley Cup.

Out West, hockey fans have been talking for months about this being the Canucks season and nothing has altered that belief. There's more depth at forward and the defence has stayed relatively healthy (except for poor Sami Salo, who could choke on air, fall backward and knock himself unconscious on a pillow). As for Roberto Luongo, the better the team in front of him, the better he'll be in the postseason.

The Penguins are presently in a bit of a funk because of Sidney Crosby's absence but he'll be back, just as Jordan Staal has begun to find his game again after a series of injuries/operations. With Marc-Andre Fleury, the Penguins have a goalie who can steal games if not a series. So remember: Canucks-Pens for the Stanley Cup.

You read it here last.



ERIC DUHATSCHEK

Roy's experience shows through here because of course he's right as well. For the same reason that it is a fool's errand to try and pick a Stanley Cup winner in October, before puck drop, it is equally impossible to do it now. So much depends on external factors that we can't predict - injuries, roster tweaks at the trade deadline and the most underrated factor of all, playoff match-ups. Some teams just match up better against one club than another. I thought that was pivotal to Chicago's success in 2010 - that San Jose spared them the trouble of exorcising the Detroit demons and took out the Red Wings on their behalf, and then politely folded in four games in the conference final. Thank you Silicon Valley!

And speaking of Chicago, no one seems to be giving the defending champions much love here - understandable perhaps given their first-half struggles and the fact that no NHL team has won back-to-back championships since the Red Wings did it in 1997 and 1998. I don't count Chicago out because a) they are healthy for the first time all season and starting to click; and b) GM Stan Bowman can get that extra depth defenceman that he needs on or close to the Feb. 28 trade deadline, which would address one of two areas where they are currently vulnerable.

Goal is clearly the other but then, nobody liked the Blackhawks' goaltending tandem of Cristobal Huet and Antti Niemi last year either, a year in which the nominal No. 2 wrested the job away and ended up with 16 playoff victories in his first ever playoff run. It seems to be happening again - Corey Crawford looking pretty good, and Marty Turco, being a good teammate and not rocking the boat. There is a part of me that believes that the best thing that could happen to Chicago this year is the fact that everybody is overlooking them. How often does the defending champion, with essentially the same winning nucleus still in place, get relegated to the ranks of teams with just an outside chance?

Over in the East, I likely would have picked Washington in October, on the grounds that they are just too talented to keep flopping again and again, but unless something dramatically changes in terms of the chemistry there, I can't see them winning the necessary three rounds in the Eastern Conference just to get to the Stanley Cup final. There are just too many contending teams that match up well against them. If it's Philly that they play, Chris Pronger will give Alex Ovechkin fits. If it's Pittsburgh, I see Sidney Crosby willing the Penguins to victory. And if it's Boston, I can't see the Bruins duplicating last year's post-season meltdown, not with a vet like Tim Thomas in goal. Everybody craves an Original Six final - and since I don't expect anybody to hold me to these picks - I'll go with Boston in the East and either Chicago or Detroit in the West.



DAVID SHOALTS

Welcome to Gary Bettman's world, everybody, where parity rules.

Like Washington from the Eastern Conference in the final, do you Mr. Grange? Well, take another look at HBO's great 24/7 series and see how easy these guys get down on themselves. They also have two young goaltenders, although I don't think goaltending, despite all the talk from the experts, is the big problem. The big problem is between the ears of everyone else on the team. If head coach Bruce Boudreau can't get them pulling together it will be another early exit for them.

As for Vancouver, speaking as one who has Roberto Luongo in the pool (plus Semyon Varlamov), oy vey! Until Luongo can show his extraordinary skills consistently in big games, fugeddaboutit.

The Chicago Blackhawks are intriguing, Mr. Duhatschek, but if they are to repeat it will have to be done with Corey Crawford in goal. It is not a surprise to some around the NHL that he took the No. 1 job away from Marty Turco. Someone I know who is familiar with the Dallas Stars says it was obvious to the Stars' bosses even before last summer that Turco was finished as an elite NHL goaltender. They saw one of their biggest tasks as finessing him out of the organization along with Mike Modano.

Picking the Stanley Cup finalists in a league where no one has repeated as champion since the lockout is a matter of drawing straws with the playoff teams. All you can say is who looks likely today. That would be Detroit in the West because they have the experience and Philly in the East, well, just because.



MATTHEW SEKERES

Much as this is a fool's game, there is one tell-tale statistic that guides us. Over the last 20 years, the Stanley Cup champion always finishes in the top 10 of the overall league standings (see below).

In fact, in the last decade, the Cup champion has almost always come from the top five in league standings, and been a 100-point team. The only exception is Pittsburgh in 2009 (99 points, eighth overall).

It makes loads of sense. The 82-game schedule is designed to identify the best teams, so are seven-game playoff series -- this isn't a single elimination tournament. So while we may see upstarts going on deep playoff runs, and even making it to the Cup final, those teams almost never win the big prize. (Remember your fairytales, Cinderella leaves the ball alone).

For this season, forget the Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks and Montreal Canadiens. They don't fit the top-10 bill right now. The Washington Capitals and Boston Bruins are just outside the top 5, which makes them contenders facing longer odds.

Out West, flip a coin between Detroit and Vancouver.

They are within two points of each other after 45 games, and neither appears to have a glaring weakness (unless you count Vancouver's postseason implosions against Chicago). They have skill, they have defence, and they have depth. The Wings have an edge in experience, the Canucks may be the hungriest team in hockey.

In the East, the bull's eye hits Pennsylvania.

Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are both top-5 teams with Cup experience. The Flyers, having reached the Finals last year, may be handcuffed by fatigue this spring. The Pens will need a healthy Sidney Crosby, and a better performance on home-ice, but both should come in the second half.

So, if you're taking money to the betting window today, any combination of the Pennsylvania teams, Detroit and Vancouver is most likely to make you a winner.

Stanley Cup champions (overall finish in regular season, point total):

2010: Chicago (3rd, 112 points)

2009: Pittsburgh (8th, 99 points)

2008: Detroit (1st, 115 points)

2007: Anaheim (4th, 110 points)

2006: Carolina (4th, 112 points)

2004: Tampa Bay (2nd, 106 points)

2003: New Jersey (4th, 108 points)

2002: Detroit (1st, 116 points)

2001: Colorado (1st, 118 points)

2000: New Jersey (4th, 103 points)

1999: Dallas (1st, 114 points)

1998: Detroit (3rd, 103 points)

1997: Detroit (5th, 94 points)

1996: Colorado (2nd, 104 points)

1995: New Jersey (9th, 52 points)*

1994: New York Rangers (1st, 112 points)

1993: Montreal (6th, 102 points)

1992: Pittsburgh (6th, 87 points)

1991: Pittsburgh (7th, 88 points)

1990: Edmonton (5th, 90 points)

* lockout shortened season









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