Montreal Canadiens forward Pierre-Alexandre Parenteau, right, celebrates with teammate Alexei Emelin after scoring a goal against the Boston Bruins in Montreal on Thursday.Eric Bolte
British polymath Sir Francis Galton made his most famous contribution to statistics in the 19 century, so it's highly doubtful he was a hockey fan.
Still, the product of his intellect is felt in today's National Hockey League – he was the first to identify the phenomenon of regression to the mean, where extreme events are typically followed by less extreme ones (Galton also outlined the theory of eugenics, proving you can't win them all).
In the current fancystats era, considerable energy is expended arguing over the extent to which performances, particularly those of the stellar variety involving goaltenders, are sustainable.
It seems a germane question to ask of the Montreal Canadiens' Carey Price, who played perhaps the best hockey of his pro career last season – consider his gold-medal performance in Sochi – and posted a career-high .927 save percentage (.934 at even strength).
So is it possible he'll regress the way other goalies coming off career years have?
Over his first three starts of the season, admittedly a very small sample, Price has at times looked like an all-world goalie, and at others – well, the less said about the loss in Tampa, the better.
In Montreal's home opener on Thursday against the Boston Bruins, which the Habs won 6-4, the B.C. native was sharp early and stayed that way throughout.
Perhaps having Hall of Famer Ken Dryden hand you a torch during the pregame hoopla focuses the mind.
In the opening couple of minutes, he made a crisp right toe save; the Habs set sail up the ice where opposite number Tuukka Rask – the reigning Georges Vézina Trophy winner – did likewise with his left.
With Boston on the power play later in the first – Price had shot the puck over the glass – the 27-year-old could do nothing to stop Zdeno Chara, who was parked in front of him.
Montreal replied on a power play, a dog's breakfast of pin-balling puck – David Desharnais fell as he shot, the puck was pushed on by Bruins defenceman Adam McQuaid and into the net via Max Pacioretty's skate.
Hey, they all count, especially when your power play is mired in an 0-for-14 dry spell.
From there, the teams traded leads, the Habs' Brendan Gallagher scoring from the doorstep, Boston's Carl Soderberg replying from the slot, the Bruins going on top through Loui Eriksson's sweet redirect on a back-door play.
Montreal scored a pair of goals late in the second – Jiri Sekac and P.A. Parenteau opened their Habs accounts within 1:25 – one on a net-front scramble and the other on a perfect one-timer.
The Habs' fifth goal, in the third, took a pair of unpredictable (and catastrophic) caroms before nestling past Rask, who was then pulled. Price gave up a mouldy-ish late one to Simon Gagné, failing to corral a routine Milan Lucic shot (even then, it went in off Gagné's skate).
There's a theme here.
In a game between conference heavyweights that featured 10 goals (Parenteau potted an empty-netter), perhaps one could plausibly be blamed on sub-standard goaltending.
The nature of hockey – and hockey stats keeping – makes it devilishly hard to separate individual talent from team effects when it comes to goalies, even elite ones.
Though Rask has better numbers over the past three seasons, he also plays on one of the league's best defensive teams.
"If you limit back-door feeds, rebound shots, tips and screens you increase your goaltenders' chances for success. The Bruins do this," said goalie analyst Chris Boyle.
During a preseason media tour, Rask was asked who his pick was for the league's best goalie. He said Price (players don't typically pick themselves).
"Price's performance during his prime isn't going to massively deviate," said Boyle, a regular contributor to Sportsnet and other media outlets. "The situation, which isn't controllable, will. When he drops from .917 to .905, it isn't because he stunk, it is because his environment changed."