The Toronto Maple Leafs are doing it again.
They're heating up, early in the year, and charging up the Eastern Conference standings as a result.
After Tuesday's win over the Calgary Flames, the Leafs are 6-1-1 in their last eight games and on pace for 100 points, with a 15-9-3 record that puts them fourth in their division and sixth in the Eastern Conference.
But you'll have to forgive Leafs Nation if they're not partying in the streets.
And their recent history is why.
Twenty-seven games into the 2011-12 season, they had 32 points, which is a 97-point pace over a full season.
They ended up with 80 and missed the playoffs by 12 points.
Last season, 27 games in, they had 31 points, a 94-point pace over a full season.
They finished with 84, missing the playoffs by nine points.
This time, they've got 33 after 27 games, and there's certainly some sameness to the whole thing.
In all three seasons, the Leafs have ridden unsustainable hot streaks early, streaks built on scoring on a high percentage of shots and/or getting a lot of saves combined with low possession numbers (Fenwick) at even strength.
| At 27-game mark | 2011-12 | 2013-14 | 2014-15 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting percentage | 11.1% (1st) | 10.1% (4th) | 11.3% (2nd) |
| Save percentage | .898 (21st) | .927 (4th) | .912 (14th) |
| Possession | 48.0% (22nd) | 42.5% (29th) | 47.5% (24th) |
In each season at this point, the counterargument to the analytics has been that the Leafs are a rush team that can sustain these high percentages and win in spite of poor possession and being outshot regularly.
So what happened the rest of the year, if we look at their combined shooting and save percentage (PDO) in all situations?
It came down. Way down to the league average (100) or below.
| First 27 games | Last 55 games | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDO | Goals for-against | PDO | Goals for-against | |
| 2011-12 | 100.9 | 84-86 | 98.9 | 143-173 |
| 2013-14 | 102.8 | 72-71 | 100.3 | 150-181 |
| 2014-15 | 102.5 | 93-79 | ? | ? |
There's something very cruel about the way the Leafs keep doing this. It even appeared to be happening in 2012-13, the lockout shortened season (not shown here) where they would have likely crashed out had the year continued beyond 48 games.
(Their PDO after 27 games that year was 102.4, third highest in the NHL.)
Even something as simple as Toronto's goal differential has been unimpressive, as they've been the definition of mediocrity after 27 games in their last two 82-game seasons, giving up as many goals as they've scored.
In that department, this year is an improvement. Yes, the shooting percentage is going to come down. But the save percentage may not. And possession, while firmly bottom 10, is dramatically better than last season.
And they're trying to get better.
"I'd like to see us have the puck more," coach Randy Carlyle said after his team was out attempted 23-6 against the Flames in the third period.
The Leafs are also not winning with shootouts and one-goal games, hockey's equivalent of smoke and mirrors when they come in abundance, as they did in the first half last season.
There's more substance there, but not this much more, and there's going to be some hardship to come. That stretch where they play 16 of 20 on the road starting in late December is as decent a point as any to count on a potential slide.
The tough question with this team isn't will the Leafs fall back but (a) how dramatic will it be? and (b) can they be a playoff team as currently constructed?
The smart money should be on it being a battle that goes down to the end. This isn't a 100-point team, but it doesn't look like an 80-point one either, unless there are horrific injuries or something else that's unexpected.
Some of what these Leafs are doing is the same, but there's also enough that's different that the outcome could surprise fans.
In a good way, for a change.