One win. Nine goals scored at even strength (5-on-5).
A drop in their playoff chances from 72.6 per cent to basically nothing.
That, in a nutshell, sums up the Toronto Maple Leafs' 13 games in the month of January, the franchise's lowest scoring month in its nearly 100-year history.
No one around the team can explain it.
"They're just not going in," centre Nazem Kadri said. "I don't know what else to say."
"Never seen it before," coach Peter Horachek added. "It doesn't mean it's not an experience we're going to learn from. We're going to learn what kind of resilience we have."
The bizarre part about the Leafs drought is you can't really pin it on any one thing. Horachek is taking the brunt of the criticism given the interim coach has been behind the bench for 11 of the 13 games, but his team's scoring chance numbers (via war-on-ice.com) are nearly identical to what they were under Randy Carlyle.
(They only mustered 14 at even strength in Saturday's 1-0 loss to the Flyers, however.)
There's also no question the Leafs have played better defensively, cutting shots against down to 28 per game after hovering around at 35-plus under Carlyle.
The answer to the questions "can the Leafs be coached?" and "can they play better defensively?" appears so far to be a resounding yes. So if you want a positive in this mess, that's one.
But whether or not they can do both while being a good team and winning more games is unclear. Through 11 games, they don't appear to have the right personnel to generate offence in tight games the way the majority of playoff teams do.
The Leafs front office didn't see a future for a system that, under Carlyle, had won only 38 times in regulation or overtime in its last 108 games dating back to November, 2013.
It remains to be seen if there's a future for this one, even with the improvements at one end of the ice.
The goals have to start coming.
"We're still trying to look for plays," Horachek explained of the drought. "And we've got to create more traffic and more chaos in the blue area and more rebound goals. We're going to have to spend more time driving to the net because they're tough to buy right now."
Rising
1. Detroit. If this is how Mike Babcock exits stage left, he’s going out on top. The Red Wings have emerged as a powerhouse, going 12-5-2 since mid-December to rocket into contention for the Presidents’ Trophy. That they’ve done it with starter Jimmy Howard on the sidelines for most of that stretch with an injury makes it all the more impressive, and it’s expected there’ll be reinforcements coming at the trade deadline. Watch out for Hockeytown: They’re back. And it’s time to finally give Babcock a Jack Adams.
2. St. Louis. The Blues were the anti-Leafs in January: Only one regulation loss (9-1-1) and a plus-22 goal differential in the 11 games thanks to an NHL-high 34 even strength goals in that stretch. The real strength of this team is in its depth, as it’s a different cast of players stepping up offensively in different stretches. Early on it was Vladimir Tarasenko that was hot; now Alex Steen (17 points in 11 games) and David Backes (same) are filling the void. They remain a Cup favourite if it all comes together in May and June.
3. Boston. This season shows just how much the Bruins need their stars. With Zdeno Chara and David Krejci ailing early, they couldn’t buy a win. Now, they’re on fire. Boston has gone 9-1-4 in its last 14 games, including an impressive win over the unimpressive Kings on Saturday. Netminder Tuukka Rask, who struggled early, has been terrific, with a .949 save percentage in January, but it’s been Chara and Krejci who’ve helped right the ship. They may not be the Bruins of old and they’re a little top heavy, but they’ll be a handful in Round 1 for the Islanders, Lightning or Habs.
Falling (or about to be)
1. Los Angeles. Making their regular appearance in this spot are the defending champs. The reality is the Kings might miss the playoffs. They have three wins in their last 13 games, and their goaltending has been a big problem. They’re also relying on Drew Doughty to play more than 30 minutes on average, don’t have a capable second or third D pairing, and aren’t getting much offence from their depth. This remains a very strong possession team, and an add before the deadline will help, but there are a lot of red flags here.
2. Vancouver. L.A. is getting some help from the Canucks, who’ve struggled enough to keep them in the race. Vancouver is mired in mediocrity right now. This is a team that started the year 18-7-1 with a lot of close games going their way and that has nine wins in the 21 games since then. This isn’t a good team or a bad team; it’s just kind of a team. They might make the postseason on the low end, but they’ll have a tough first round opponent and low expectations. And the Sedins aren’t getting any younger.
3. Calgary. You’re already typing out the hate mail. We know. Click, click, grumble, grumble. Yes, the upstart Flames have been surprising and defying predictions all year, and they’ve rattled off enough wins in January – with netminder Joni Ortio the latest saviour – to stay right in the race. No matter what happens from here, this was a remarkable year for Calgary, who most had at the bottom of the West. No question. But most of their recent wins have been against struggling teams, and while they’ve improved defensively, they continue to spend a lot of time in their own end. They absolutely can’t afford another slide like December’s eight-game losing streak as the pace is about to pick up.
Playoff spots appear set in East
Something curious happened in the last month, as the Leafs took their nosedive down the standings: The East got good.
At least at the top end.
Heading into Sunday’s games, the team set to finish in the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference was the Bruins, who are on pace for 99 points, well above where the cut-off typically is.
Eight teams at or around 100 points in one conference is relatively unheard of, but it could happen.
Barring some huge collapse, the eight teams in the East’s top eight all look set, with more than 30 games left to be played. Part of what’s happened is that the bottom of the conference is so terrible it’s helped boost the top teams even higher, especially in the last stretch of games.
Eight of the top 12 teams in the NHL, record wise, are in the East right now. Seven of the top 11 possession teams, in the last 20 games, are from there, too.
For the first time perhaps ever under this conference system, it looks like it’ll be easier to make the postseason in the West than the East. And all of the good races for the final spots will be out West, too.
Detroit and Columbus may want to rethink jumping conferences.