For the Los Angeles Kings, it was downright domination.
Desperately needing points on Saturday night, they held Colorado to only 10 shots on goal, suffocating an offence that has some of the game's top young talent in what became a 3-1 win. It was only the 22nd time since 1987-88 – when the NHL began widely recording shots on goal – that a team had been held to 10 shots or less.
With that, the Stanley Cup defending champs crawled back into the final wild-card spot in the Western Conference. But with four games and a week left in their season, – much of it on the road – the Kings' playoff hopes remain precarious.
Even though they are one of the best teams in the NHL.
That might sound peculiar, given L.A. has won exactly half of its games this season, the definition of a .500 record. The Kings have fewer points than teams such as Calgary and Vancouver – two of the non-contenders currently in playoff spots – and won't be one of the 10-odd teams that cracks 100 points.
Part of the reason why is explained by what happened with the 2012 Baltimore Orioles.
Statistical analysis in baseball is miles ahead of where hockey is right now, to the point that some statistical truths have been largely accepted thanks to people such as Bill James. One of those is that a team's record in games decided by only one run can be highly volatile and luck-driven – a trait that is unsustainable from season-to-season.
The 2012 Orioles, at 29-9, posted the best record in the history of baseball in one-run games and made a surprise playoff appearance as a result. The next year, Baltimore was 20-31 in one-run games, finished right around .500 and missed the postseason.
How does that relate to the Kings? Well, they're essentially the anti-Orioles of this NHL season. A great team by a lot of metrics, Los Angeles has a brutal record in one-goal games, winning only 13 of 36 – including a league-worst 3-14 record in overtime and the shootout.
The god-awful Coyotes and Oilers have better records in one-goal games. The almost-as-bad Leafs are a tiny percentage behind the Kings. Next season, all those outcomes could be entirely different.
Baseball and hockey are obviously vastly different sports, statistically and otherwisebut this close-game relationship is one they share. There's basically zero correlation, for example, in the number of overtime and shootout games an NHL team played in last season compared with this one, or between teams' records in those games.
The Kings are hardly the only example, either. Last year's Avalanche had a 112-point season in part on the strength of an Orioles-like 28-4-8 record in one-goal games.
This year, Colorado is below average in those close games and on pace for 25 fewer points, which means they'll be picking in the top 10.
Records can be deceiving, in other words– especially in the NHL, where close games make up a higher percentage of the standings than almost any other sport. That's very much part of the story with the Kings, who despite all appearances, are still a powerhouse team that controls the puck better than any other in the league.
No one should want to face them in the first round. If they even make it there.
Rising
Top puck-possession teams, past 20 games
1. Los Angeles. The Kings are not a particularly high scoring team, but they excel at outshooting and outpossessing teams, something that has proved to be as predictive of playoff success as any one stat currently available in hockey. If you combine a good possession game with a hot goalie, chances are you’ll go deep in the postseason, something L.A. has managed three years in a row. But can they make it four?
Score-adjusted possession (past 20): 56.7 per cent.
2. Winnipeg. You could make the case that the NHL’s Central Division has five of the league’s best 10 or 11 teams, given the significant improvements from the Jets and Predators this season. The Jets are in the same boat as the Kings in that they still need to make the postseason, but if Winnipeg does quality, it will be a big, strong and well-coached team. A handful. As always, the Jets’ concerns are in goal, even with Ondrej Pavelec’s rebound over the past couple of months.
Score-adjusted possession (past 20): 54.3 per cent.
3. St. Louis. Another team to like in the Central. The Blues, however, have been dropping a lot of games lately – they were an unimpressive 11-8-3 in their previous 22 prior before facing Chicago on Sunday – and who knows what they get in goal. With all of their young talent on the rise and coach Ken Hitchcock potentially on the hot seat, this is a pivotal year for a franchise that has passed the first round only once in the last 11 seasons. Every indication is the Blues can contend this year, but their road is a tough one.
Score-adjusted possession (past 20): 53.9 per cent.
Honourable mentions:Pittsburgh and Nashville.
Falling
Bottom puck-possession teams, past 20 games
1. Calgary. This won’t be news to Flames fans: This team has defied predictions and analysis all year. Even without captain Mark Giordano, who’s lost for the year, Calgary has posted an impressive 10-5-3 record to stay in the hunt for the postseason, battling away with the Kings and Jets for the West’s final berth. This is a team driven by an outstanding performance from its top line, which includes two kids in rookie-of-the-year candidate Johnny Gaudreau and 20-year-old 30-goal man Sean Monahan. They’re one of the best underdog stories in the NHL the past half-dozen years, even if they’re getting some help from the hockey gods.
Score-adjusted possession (past 20):43.6 per cent.
2. Montreal. The Habs are not exactly rocketing into the postseason. The Canadiens had only six wins in their past 17 games heading into Sunday’s meeting with the Panthers, and it’s only been a lot of Bettman points that have kept their record respectable since the start of March (6-6-5). They’ve leaned heavily on their stars – especially netminder Carey Price – all season, and it’s going to be up to them to overcome some of this group’s other deficiencies in the playoffs. What’s deeply concerning is that, without P.K. Subban on the ice, the Habs have been a 43.5-per-cent possession team the past 20 games. And he can’t play the whole game.
Score-adjusted possession (past 20):46.6 per cent.
3. Vancouver. Yes, all three teams in the “falling” category this week are Canadian, and, no, that’s not by design. But the Canucks are in a similar spot to the Flames and Habs in that they will only go as far as their best players carry them. In Vancouver’s case, that remains the Sedin twins. But netminder Eddie Lack’s .920 save percentage since the all-star break has been part of the story, too, and the Canucks will need goaltending like that to have a hope in the playoffs.
Score-adjusted possession (past 20):47.8 per cent.
Honourable mention:N.Y. Rangers.
Analytics via fenwick-stats.com before Sunday’s games. Only teams in playoff race included.