Go to the Globe and Mail homepage

Jump to main navigationJump to main content

Why Nazem Kadri is unlikely to repeat his success next season Add to ...

The charts below break down Nazem Kadri's season and compares it to other players in the NHL. Press the "show explanation" button for a guided tour through the charts and hover over any circle to see more information about the player and their stats.

Read the related story

Nazem Kadri's season

When you’re putting up a lot of points as an NHL player, it stands to reason your team is scoring a lot of goals when you’re on the ice. And the biggest driver of that is you and your teammates converting on a high percentage of your shots on goal, as both Sidney Crosby and Kadri have this season.

Show explanation

CROSBY

Sidney Crosby was having one of the greatest offensive seasons in recent memory, with 1.56 points per game, before getting injured. Crosby was such an anomaly because his team scores on a high percentage of shots when he's on the ice. Few players are even close to Crosby when it comes to consistently elevating their team’s shooting percentage when they step on the ice.
NEXT

KADRI

Nazem Kadri has also been an incredibly dominant player at even strength, but his success has been driven by the on-ice shooting percentage even more than Crosby. While it’s likely that Kadri also makes his teammates better, it’s unlikely he will be able to maintain such a high on-ice shooting percentage over the long haul as he is not that much more effective a player than the best scorer in the world.
NEXT

THE TRENDLINE

This line shows how on-ice shooting percentage is closely related to offensive production. Both Crosby and Kadri are outliers for different reasons: Crosby outperforms the “normal production” and Kadri has an incredibly high on-ice shooting percentage.
CLOSE
Source: behindthenet.ca
Note: Statistics as of April 8, 2013

Fall from grace

Being on the ice for a lot of goals one season doesn’t necessarily mean it will happen the next. In recent years, hockey statisticians have examined the sustainability of shooting percentages and found many players have trouble repeating their success in that category. There are exceptions ­– and they are usually the very best players in the league.

Show explanation

STAMKOS

Steven Stamkos of the Tampa Bay Lightning is one of those. No player has scored anywhere near the 182 goals Stamkos has in the last four seasons (Alex Ovechkin is second with 146) and his ability to convert on so many of his shots is a big reason why. He has generally been in the 11 to 12 per cent range in his career, which is very abnormal.
NEXT

EBERLE

Jordan Eberle of the Edmonton Oilers, meanwhile, is an excellent study in how volatile shooting percentages can be. He was second in the NHL among all forwards last season (behind Stamkos) but has tumbled into average territory this season and seen his point totals crash as a result. This is more common than someone like Stamkos, who can keep his percentages elevated over a long period due to his immense skill level.
NEXT

THE TRENDLINE

Players with a very low on-ice shooting percentage one year often see that number rebound closer to the average. A good example of this is Matt Duchene of the Colorado Avalanche, who had 5.8 per cent last season and is nearly double that at 9.4 per cent this year. Unsurprisingly, Duchene has nearly one point per game after recording only 28 in 58 games a year ago.
CLOSE
Source: behindthenet.ca
Note: Statistics as of April 8, 2013
Source: behindthenet.ca
Interactive by STUART A. THOMPSON
FEEDBACK