Canada hopes to topple mighty Mexico in men's Olympic qualifying

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Friendly was not the first word that came to mind when Toronto FC met Mexican league leader Santos Laguna last Wednesday in the first leg of the CONCACAF Champions League semi-finals – there were as many red cards as goals in the 1-1 draw – and now a place in the London Olympics will be on the line Saturday when both countries' under-23 national-team squads clash in Kansas City.

With the return leg of that semi-final scheduled for next Wednesday – the Mexican club's players have already warned their TFC counterparts to be ready for "all-out war" – the next five days look set to be a defining period for the on-field relationship between the two countries.

Saturday's game will be no less fiercely contested, although it looks a tall order for Tony Fonseca's team. Mexico has burned through the qualifying tournament so far, scoring 11 goals and conceding just one. And Canada is likely still kicking itself for conceding a 91st-minute equalizer against Cuba in its final round-robin game last Monday – a goal that dropped the team into second place in its group and cost it a far more favourable semi-final matchup against Honduras.

Still, much like Canada's Olympic soccer gold in 1904, that result is firmly in the rear-view mirror.

"We don't focus too much on the past to be honest with you," Fonseca said on Friday via conference call. "The past belongs to the museums. It's about the present, it's about what we should be doing and what we can do now in order to win the game."

Though he refused to elaborate on the tactics he might employ to defuse the live-wire Mexicans – as far as most soccer coaches go it would have notable if he had – the Portugal-born former Benfica player is well aware of what just one more win would do for a country that hasn't sent a men's soccer team to the Olympics since 1984. But he refuted suggestions that his team would have happily chosen to be in this position before the tournament commenced.

"I think sometimes we as Canadians put ourselves in bad situations right before we start," he said. "If people thought that we were going to be the weakest team in the tournament it shows that they don't have any belief in what we do and what we are as a country and what we are producing. Yes, we still have a lot of work ahead of us but this group has been showing me and everyone that even as a young group that they can compete and also everything that we have done is not going to go to waste."

It certainly looked like a lost cause when Canada's tournament opened with a laboured draw against El Salvador, a match in which Fonseca's side had goalkeeper Michal Misiewicz, who plays for FC Edmonton in the North American Soccer League, to thank for keeping the honours even. But then came the shock of the tournament, as goals from Doneil Henry and Lucas Cavallini stunned the host Americans 2-0 in Nashville to put Canada within touching distance of the Olympics.

Though Fonseca naturally hopes to avoid the ill will of last Wednesday's TFC game – "It doesn't make any sense in football any more" – he knows you know can never really prepare for that. Besides, when you're this close to the Olympics, tempers are always flare, but it's all about the result.

"We are aware of the huge mountain ahead of us but as far as I'm concerned, today it's a 50-50 chance," he said. "It's like you playing lottery, you're in it to win it."