Kelly: Shameless Blatter positions himself as FIFA’s candidate of renewal

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Speaking publicly for the first time since his organization was reduced to a gilded mafia in the world's eyes, FIFA president Sepp Blatter tried to seem mournful on Thursday. He couldn't carry it off. In his opening speech to FIFA's congress, he didn't bother attempting contrition. He's not foolish enough to assume any responsibility for what's happened on his watch.

Instead, he fell back on his familiar refrain in what have become familiar crises – a few bad apples are to blame.

"We, or I, cannot monitor everyone all of the time. If people want to do wrong, they will also try to hide it," Blatter said, scolding his delegates. And, largely, they are all still his.

This was the year Blatter had promised to step down. He's said that several times in the past. In each case, he changed his mind. The 79-year-old is seeking a fifth term in office on Friday. Despite recent events, he'll win. In fact, recent events may end up helping in that regard.

Up until Wednesday's dawn raids and the arrests of nine senior FIFA executives on a variety of corruption charges, Blatter's campaign had no focus. It didn't need one. He'd scared off his two main rivals – former Real Madrid star Luis Figo and Royal Dutch Football Association chairman Michael van Praag. The only opponent left was a relative newcomer and former Blatter ally – 39-year-old Jordanian Prince Ali bin Al Hussein.

During Thursday's address, Blatter finally found his theme – he's the candidate of renewal.

"The next few months will not be easy for FIFA. I'm sure more bad news may follow. But it is necessary to begin to restore trust in our organization. Let this be the turning point," Blatter said. "Tomorrow we have the opportunity to begin on what will be a long and difficult road to rebuilding trust. We have lost their trust … and we must now earn it back."

It's so shameless, you stand in awe of it. Especially because it works.

Blatter has spent decades patching together his network of support. Early on, he exploited a peculiarity of FIFA's presidential election process – one vote per member nation, regardless of size. When FIFA was founded by eight European powers more than a century ago, it didn't occur to them that electoral egalitarianism would be their undoing.

For Blatter's purposes, the support of a soccer non-entity such as the Cayman Islands (pop. 58,000) is equal to the backing of four-time world champions Germany (pop. 80 million).

Better, even. Because while Germany (or England, or Brazil, or France, etc.) may think about the game's health in Big Picture global terms, smaller countries just want to be acknowledged. Maybe they get FIFA funding for a Centre for Sports Excellence or a new state-of-the-art field or are awarded one of many lesser global tournaments. Canada has been one of the outsized beneficiaries of Blatter's policy to take soccer to non-traditional soccer nations.

All this requires is money, which FIFA has oodles of. According to its most recent financial statements, FIFA holds a cash reserve in excess of $1.5-billion (U.S.). Its profit from the 2014 World Cup in Brazil was more than $2.5-billion.

This is an organization that has no measurable infrastructure, aside from its Zurich headquarters. It has little overhead. It produces nothing. It awards World Cups, which are ruinously underwritten by host nations. FIFA then turns around and rakes in most of the cash from TV rights and sponsorships.

It's not a business. It's a global money tree.

Blatter's brilliance is that he is willing to share. The largest line in his outfit's budget is 'Development Related Expenses'. FIFA gives away more than $250-million a year for soccer projects around the world. It steers private-sector money toward many others. The quid pro quo goes unspoken.

It's corrupting, but it's not corruption – not in any legal sense. In another sphere, we might call it smart business. The actual corruptions are left to interchangeable subordinates. Blatter stays well clear of those sordid concerns. At worst, he tolerates them. More likely, he doesn't know about them because he doesn't want to. It's the reason he isn't in handcuffs.

On Friday, it may seem as though dozens of nations are voting for a crooked regime. Instead, they are voting for themselves. They realize that if the balance of power spins away from their man and back to the elites in Europe, the trough is going to get a lot smaller. For many, it will vanish altogether.

As usual, Europe has run right past the forest and begun hacking at the trees. An appeal to First World business norms is not what will sway this election. Inclusion without judgment is what might turn voters. Foolishly, Europe – through its continental association, UEFA – has spent two days scaring everyone off.

First, they threatened to skip the congress en masse. Quickly realizing that that would turn Blatter's election into a coronation, they switched tacks. Now they will back Blatter's only competition – Jordan's Prince Ali. They have also subtly threatened to boycott the next World Cup. They'd never do it, but to raise the possibility is pompous and aggressive.

UEFA isn't pulling the world away from Blatter. They're herding it in his direction.

None of this is helped by the fact that Ali is a wild card. He talks a great deal about reform, but has no bonafides. He's spent most of his life in the military. He's promised to leave after just one term – which sounds ominous.

Thus, the calculation being made on Friday by FIFA's 209 member associations – the devil we know or the dilettante we don't?

The election of president is the last event on Friday's schedule. To win, a candidate requires 140 votes (two-thirds of 209) on the first ballot. A simple majority wins on a second ballot. The voting is done in secret – another advantage for Blatter.

UEFA is urging its 54 members to back Ali, though several – Russia and Spain prime among them – will stick with the incumbent. Ali claims he has as many as 60 other votes spread out across the globe, which sounds more than a bit hopeful.

Blatter already has the public backing of the Asian (AFC) and African (CAF) football associations. Working as a bloc, those two bodies can bring the Swiss 103 votes – two from a majority.

Barring a remarkable back-room scramble, the result is a foregone conclusion.

Despite the high dudgeon being deployed by the soccer community and world leaders including British Prime Minister David Cameron, the real question is not whether Sepp Blatter can be unseated. It's how long they'll have to wait until he decides to leave on his own.