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Milos Raonic serves in his first-round match against Dustin Brown on day two of the 2017 Australian Open.

Canada's Milos Raonic embarked upon his first major tournament as a Top-3 player this week at the Australian Open in Melbourne. The 26-year-old is eyeing his first Grand Slam title.

This year, following the ouster of favourite Novak Djokovic, he can expect his path to the title to go through 14-time Grand Slam winner Rafael Nadal in the quarter-final, and one of Andy Murray, Roger Federer, Kei Nishikori, or Stan Wawrinka in the final.

So what does Raonic need to do in order to win the whole thing?

With the Australian Open underway, Canada's best shot at winning its first major singles title in a men's tournament rests with Milos Raonic.

By analyzing random samples of points Raonic has played on hard-court surfaces during his pro career, and doing the same for his main rivals, we've identified trends that help identify Raonic's path to success over the next two weeks. No matter who stands on the other side of the Melbourne hard courts, Raonic will need to get better in two areas if he wants to break through: keeping most points short and improving his results on longer points.

(Data for this article comes from the Match Charting Project hosted by Jeff Sackmann at tennisabstract.com. Volunteers manually tracked each point for more than 2,700 ATP and WTA matches, assigning values for characteristics such as type of shot, shot direction and depth, and rally length.)

We organized the points based on the number of shots it took to play them, revealing some important tendencies. Let's take a closer look.

Keeping most points short

On a macro level, we know that the majority of points in professional tennis are decided in the first four shots; points longer than that represent a much smaller portion of the total.

Distribution of points by rally length

Random sample of 1,000 points played by

eight elite players

300

55% of points

are won in the

first three strokes

200

100

39% of points

6% of points

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Distribution of points by rally length

Random sample of 1,000 points played by eight elite players

300

55% of points

are won in the

first three strokes

200

100

39% of points

6% of points

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Distribution of points by rally length

Random sample of 1,000 points played by eight elite players

300

55% of points

are won in the

first three strokes

200

100

39% of points

6% of points

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Distribution of points by rally length

Random sample of 1,000 points played by eight elite players

300

55% of points

are won in the

first three strokes

200

100

39% of points

6% of points

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

The above chart shows the distribution of hard-court points by rally length for the eight elite players we analyzed (the Top 5 in the world plus Federer, Nadal and Marin Cilic, based on a randomly generated sample of 1,000). This breakdown suggests that about 55 per cent of all points are decided on the serve, return, or the next shot. About 39 per cent of points last between four and 12 shots, while just six per cent last longer than that. (When the points do get longer, Raonic tends to underperform compared with his main rivals. Keeping the points shorter means avoiding too many long rallies.)

In Raonic's case, these trends are exacerbated. He has a deadly serve but struggles (relative to the elite class) with his return game. In tandem, these two tendencies mean 66.5 per cent of the points played during Raonic's matches are over before the fourth shot. His success rate on those points is better than half, but that puts him about middle of the pack. Why? The discrepancy between serve and return points is stark: No one in the elite group can touch Raonic's success rate on his own serve (83.7 per cent), but his 18 per cent success rate on his opponent's serve in short points is seventh out of the eight. Only world No. 4 Stan Wawrinka's is worse.

This suggests Raonic can improve his success rate on the shorter points he already tends to play. A deeper look at his return-of-serve troubles should tell us how.

Raonic's return of serve: No better than the average Top 50 player

Return-of-serve success rate, hard courts, past year

PlayerWhen returning 1st serveWhen returning 2nd serveAll service return points
Djokovic33.6%59.1%44.1%
Murray34.2%57.6%43.3%
Nadal33.8%53.5%41.9%
Federer34.4%53.7%41.9%
Nishikori29.6%54.1%39.3%
Wawrinka28.0%49.6%37.2%
Cilic27.9%50.4%36.9%
Raonic28.9%48.8%36.8%
Top 50 average28.7%50.2%37.4%

Source: tennisabstract.com

Mason Wright/The Globe and Mail

Following his loss to Grigor Dimitrov in the semi-final of the Brisbane International this month, just ahead of the Australian Open, Raonic picked up on a specific area of weakness that is made abundantly clear in the table above: second-serve returns.

"He won over 80 per cent of second-serve points, which is, for lack of a better word, pretty bad on my side," Raonic said. His overall tendencies aren't as bad as that one match, but Raonic wins fewer points on his opponent's second serve than the average Top 50 player, something that will have to be corrected if he is to win a major.

Raonic sometimes wins praise because his ability to return serve isn't as bad as some of the other big servers of his era, like John Isner or Ivo Karlovic. But doing well for a power server won't be good enough to overcome the likes of Nadal and Murray. At six-foot-five, Raonic shouldn't lumber around the court the way Isner (six-foot-10 ) or Karlovic (six-foot-11) do.

Of course, Raonic needs to serve at an exceptionally high level; he's one of the greatest servers in the modern game and it's an overpowering asset he possesses. But he also needs to find a way to return serve at an acceptable rate. Winning at least 50 per cent of points on his opponents' second serve would put him at the average for a Top 50 player.

A best-in-class serve combined with a respectable return game should result in more short points, and a better success rate in those points.

Improved play on longer points

Supposing Raonic can take care of his serve and contend with the upper echelon on return of serve, he will have the edge on the two-thirds of points lasting three shots or less. Points of four to 12 strokes represent 33 per cent of the total share in Raonic's matches, and that's where we'll turn our attention now.

Raonic’s point performance by rally length

Rally length

(number of times ball

is hit in by both players)

Points

won

Points

lost

2 strokes

4

6

8

10

12

One-stroke rallies are

either an ace or an error

from the return player

Like all players, Raonic

plays fewer points in

longer rallies, but his

drop-off is more extreme

Raonic’s point performance by rally length

Rally length

(number of times ball

is hit in by both players)

Points

won

Points

lost

Like all players, Raonic plays

fewer points in longer rallies, but

his drop-off is more extreme

2 strokes

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

One-stroke rallies are either an ace or an error from the return player

Raonic’s point performance by rally length

Rally length

(number of times ball

is hit in by both players)

Points

won

Points

lost

2 strokes

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

One-stroke rallies are

either an ace or an error

from the return player

Like all players, Raonic plays

fewer points in longer rallies, but

his drop-off is more extreme

Raonic’s point performance by rally length

Rally length

(number of times ball

is hit in by both players)

Points

won

Points

lost

Like all players, Raonic plays

fewer points in longer rallies, but

his drop-off is more extreme

2 strokes

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

One-stroke rallies are either an ace or an error from the return player

At first glance, Raonic's distribution curve appears to follow normal patterns, but zeroing in on the 4 to 12 range (see below) highlights his deficiencies next to the rest of the elite eight. (All charts were built using a random sample of 1,000 hard-court shots for each player.)

How Raonic compares to other top players

in longer rallies

Nadal is a remarkably

consistent player,

outperforming Raonic

in longer rallies

Rafael Nadal

Raonic

4 strokes

6

8

10

12

Novak Djokovic

Andy Murray

Roger Federer

Stan Wawrinka

Kei Nishikori

Marin Cilic

How Raonic compares to other top players in longer rallies

Rafael Nadal

Nadal is a remarkably consistent player,

outperforming Raonic in longer rallies

Raonic

4 strokes

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Novak Djokovic

Andy Murray

Roger Federer

Stan Wawrinka

Kei Nishikori

Marin Cilic

How Raonic compares to other top players in longer rallies

Rafael Nadal

Nadal is a remarkably consistent

player, outperforming Raonic in

longer rallies

Raonic

4 strokes

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Novak Djokovic

Andy Murray

Roger Federer

Stan Wawrinka

Kei Nishikori

Marin Cilic

How Raonic compares to other top players in longer rallies

Rafael Nadal

Nadal is a remarkably consistent player,

outperforming Raonic in longer rallies

Raonic

4 strokes

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Novak Djokovic

Andy Murray

Roger Federer

Stan Wawrinka

Kei Nishikori

Marin Cilic

It's easy to understand why just about every one of Raonic's main rivals is favoured in points that last beyond the first three strokes. The knock on big servers is that they lack the athleticism and quickness to play defence and survive longer rallies.

But winning more points in that 4-to-12-shot range could make the difference between claiming a title or failing to reach even the semi-final. If Raonic can find a way to win a greater share of the longer points, he will neutralize one common strategy opponents use against him: defend Raonic's serve well enough to lengthen points, move him around the court and push his stamina, fitness and quickness to the breaking point. This tactic is especially threatening to Raonic in the heat of summer in Australia.

The good news for Raonic is that he has shown improvement on longer points during his rise to the Top 5. In all 4-to-12-shot points tracked by tennisabstract.com, his winning percentage went from 42.6 in 2013 to 50.4 in 2016. His work with new coach Richard Krajicek has included a focus on being more aggressive and moving around the court better.

"There were two focuses," Raonic said in a recent interview, "spending less time pounding my lower body on concrete, then focused on losing a little bit of weight. Those hours spent with a few extra pounds here and there can make a difference."

Now that we have shown what to watch for, it will be interesting to see if – and how – Raonic manages to break through this month in Melbourne.