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Research in Motion Ltd. has the hottest toy on the market. We’re not talking about the latest BlackBerry smartphone, but its stock: speculators can’t get enough of it. More than one-third of its shares were held by short-sellers as of mid-June. Many analysts who follow the company aren’t much better, adding to the fog of speculation with questionable “channel checks” to assess the company’s sell-through and month-by-month changes to their forecasts.