As the Toronto mayoral election approaches, more and more polls will be published in an attempt to gauge the state of the race. Can anything be learned from the last election’s experience with the polls?
In the early days of the 2010 Toronto mayoral campaign, the race was close and the field was crowded. George Smitherman narrowly had the advantage, averaging about 31 per cent in polls conducted between April and June of that year. Rob Ford was not far behind at 27 per cent, and one poll even put him in the lead.