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As air strikes loom over Syria and turmoil rages across the Middle East, oil is up and stocks are down. That is a predictable and understandable reaction to the uncertainty. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil is 15 per cent higher over three months, with a sharp rise in the past few days. Investors can pick and choose between the horrors in Syria or the paralysis in Egypt. Yet the country the oil market really ought to worry about is Libya.