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A University of Pennsylvania study of almost 28,000 predictions from 284 economists, political scientists, intelligence analysts and journalists found their average forecasts to be only slightly better than random guessing.
A University of Pennsylvania study of almost 28,000 predictions from 284 economists, political scientists, intelligence analysts and journalists found their average forecasts to be only slightly better than random guessing.
(Kevin Van Paassen/The Globe and Mail)

The one economic forecast that has no margin of error

Editor’s note: Statistics Canada announced on Tuesday, Aug. 12, that there was an error in the jobs report data they released on Aug. 8. Read more.

Did you catch that horrible jobs report? The mere 200 jobs created across all of Canada in July fell spectacularly short of economists’ predictions for 20,000 new positions, adding to evidence that a) Canada’s jobs-generating machine is in rough shape, and b) economists’ forecast-generating machine is in even rougher shape.