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(BRENDAN MCDERMID/REUTERS)

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Congrats, Mr. President. Now for the bad news …

The dominant narrative out there holds that a U.S. recovery is in full swing, powered by a rebound in home prices and better auto sales. But at least two bright minds have a different view of what lies ahead for the newly elected president.

Jeremy Piger of the University of Oregon calculates the probability of a recession based on four factors: non-farm payroll employment, industrial production, real personal income, and manufacturing and trade sales. His numbers, published on the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis website, say the odds of a recession have risen sharply in recent months.