Jana Partners has a long way to go before persuading Agrium Inc. shareholders that the fertilizer maker needs to be broken up, but the hedge fund may turn a few heads with its analysis that there is about 50-per-cent upside in the stock.

Jana has been working behind the scenes pitching its plan to investors and management for months. On Monday, it unveiled its analysis publicly for the first time. Jana founder Barry Rosenstein laid out his argument at the Value Investing Congress in New York City, a marquee event for value investors to present their best ideas. His 41-page presentation built up to one big number in the finale: $50 a share.