So much for the idea that tail risks are off the table.

The whole point of tail risks, those low-probability but high-impact outcomes that seemed all too common in the depths of the financial crisis, is that they are hard to see coming. The idea that Cyprus, a nation with a population the size of Calgary and 0.2 per cent of the European economy, could be the starting point for a broader European bank run is nothing if not a reminder of that.