Can the Golden Globes predict the Oscars? A brief primer on the major categories

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Let's get something out of the way right now: No Academy Awards voter will be swayed by what happened Sunday night at the Golden Globes – nomination polls for this year's Oscars closed on Friday night.

But despite the timing – and the general sketchiness of those who comprise the oft-mocked Hollywood Foreign Press Association – the Globes have a generally good sense of which way the Oscar winds are blowing. Last year, all four of the Academy's eventual best actors/actresses (Eddie Redmayne, Julianne Moore, J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette) first won statuettes from the HFPA. As for best picture, 2013's Globes lauded eventual Oscar winner 12 Years a Slave, while 2012's Argo was a Globes/Oscar two-header, as well.

Sure, the Globes are silly and booze-soaked and far more infatuated with Mel Gibson than morally justifiable, but the show isn't going anywhere. We might as well have fun with what tea-leaves readings it has to offer. So, for this year's Oscar race – which until last night was the most foggy of marathons in recent memory – what did we learn? A brief primer on the major categories:

Best actor: Despite what I just wrote above, the major categories at the Globes do offer at least a mild challenge when foretelling the Oscars, as the HFPA nominates performers and pictures of the year in both drama and (bizarrely, insistently) comedy/musical. But at least we can glean some clarity from the winners of last night's show. For instance, despite The Martian being funny only in its choice of soundtrack, Matt Damon landed the GG for best actor (comedy/musical) – meaning he's a good lock for at least an Oscar nomination, though not a win. That particular triumph will likely belong to Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant. Partly because the actor won last night for the drama category, but also because the rest of the GG nominees can only be described in that favoured Internet parlance as "problematic." The Big Short's Steve Carell and Christian Bale? They cancel each other out. Eddie Redmayne? A caricature of a performance that only waters down the legacy of his Oscar win from last year. Bryan Cranston? A solid turn, but for a film more suited to HBO than the big screen. Will Smith? A quiet role in a movie that's already faded from memory. And Michael Fassbender? Great performance, but for a drama that under-performed at the box office and revels in one guy being an irredeemable jerk for its entire run time. It's DiCaprio's time – just keep Jonah Hill's bear jokes at a distance, Oscar producers.

Best actress: The HFPA has always loved Jennifer Lawrence, so it's little surprise she won over a slate of nice-but-not-mind-blowing competitors in the comedy/musical slot (with the exception of Spy's Melissa McCarthy, who owned that film like no one else could). But Lawrence's tepidly received Joy is quickly losing steam in the awards race itself, and the Academy would be hard-pressed to trumpet the mangled David O. Russell production over Room's Brie Larson, last night's winner in the drama category. Actually, every other front-runner from this very strong year– from Carol's tag team of Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara to Brooklyn's Saoirse Ronan – offer more of an Academy-friendly campaign than Lawrence and the forgettable Joy.

Best director: This remains one of the tougher races to crack, as each front-runner (Alejandro González Iñárritu, Todd Haynes, Tom McCarthy, George Miller, Ridley Scott, Quentin Tarantino, Lenny Abrahamson, Ryan Coogler, Adam McKay … and not one woman, you will sadly notice) presents their own unique awards-race narrative. Yet as strange as it is to type these words, it may indeed be Golden Globe-winner Iñárritu who finds himself onstage at the Oscars' Dolby Theatre on Feb. 28, just one year after accepting the same award for Birdman – making him the first director to score back-to-back best directing Academy Awards in 66 years (Joseph L. Mankiewicz won 1950 and 1951 for A Letter to Three Wives and All About Eve, respectively). Despite The Revenant's shaky status in the critical community – some critics simply have a fiery hatred for the director and his affinity for cinematic trickery (super-long takes, shooting only in natural light) – audiences have strangely warmed up to the ice-cold tale of revenge, and the film is a legitimately impressive cinematic feat. Although the "he ought to have won by now" campaign being mounted by Scott's team is strong, the fact that GG-winner The Martian is being marketed as a lightweight tale (a comedy in the Globes' eyes, no less!) offers a strike against him – and an inadvertent push for the Academy to favour a more "serious" offering, such as The Revenant.

Best picture: Speaking of The Martian: while it was nice to see the film triumph over its comedy (?) compatriots Joy (a non-starter), Trainwreck (honour just to be nominated), The Big Short (like The Martian, more of a drama with a humorous edge) and Spy (WHICH ACTUALLY SHOULD HAVE WON, sorry for the all-caps), it will likely fall at the Oscars to the dramatic winner of the night, The Revenant. Matt Damon, disco music and a passion for potatoes can only take a film so far up against Leonardo DiCaprio, a bear and the forces of nature itself.