Canada’s crude production will rise 33 per cent to 5.6 million barrels a day by 2035, driven by increased output from oil-sands operations, according to the industry’s main trade group.
Oil-sands production will increase 58 per cent to 4.2 million barrels a day in that period, while conventional output will remain little changed at about 1.33 million barrels, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers said in a statement on Tuesday.
That increasing production is already running into a shortage of pipeline space, with last year’s 4.2 million barrels of oil and diluent output exceeding shipping capacity, the group said. Those bottlenecks have weighed on the relative prices Canadian crude garners from refiners and have shifted investment dollars to the U.S., according to CAPP.
“It is difficult for Canadian producers to ensure fair market value for our natural resources without major pipelines or access to new, emerging markets in regions such as China, India and Southeast Asia,” CAPP Chief Executive Officer Tim McMillan said in the statement.