CRA cheques, home price declines and the best-case scenario for stocks: The business and investing stories you need to know about this week

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Getting caught up on a week that got away? Here’s your weekly digest of the Globe’s most essential business and investing stories, with insights and analysis from the pros, stock tips, portfolio strategies and more.

Canadian taxpayers are sitting on a lot of uncashed cheques

The Canada Revenue Agency announced earlier this week that Canadians across the country are holding uncashed cheques worth a net $1.4-billion. As Patrick Egwu writes, there are an estimated 8.9 million uncashed cheques with the CRA – dating as far back as 1998 – likely due to changes in a recipient’s address or being misplaced. The CRA plans on notifying those who are eligible for these cheques by e-mail over the next nine months. But there’s a way to find out sooner if there’s money in your name – and perhaps more importantly, get that cheque reissued ASAP. After all, we could all use a little extra cash during these inflationary times.

Cash gift now > inheritance later

If you’re planning on leaving your kids a large inheritance, you might be doing both them and your money a disservice. Not only does letting your children struggle financially while they wait for you to die create an uncomfortable family dynamic at holiday dinners, it also robs your wealth of its best application: to make your life and that of your children more comfortable. After all, the bulk of life’s largest expenses – attending postsecondary school, getting married, buying a home, and starting a family – typically happen before the age of 40. Bridget Casey outlines why parents should consider giving their children cash gifts in early adulthood to set them up financially rather than leaving them a bulk inheritance later on.

Why aren’t more Canadians switching jobs?

With record low unemployment and a tight labour market, why aren’t more people changing jobs – especially if it might lead to higher pay? In the early days of the pandemic, very few people switched jobs, which was understandable considering the financial uncertainties posed by lockdowns. But as record sums of Americans started to quit their jobs in 2021, mostly to secure better positions, Canadians didn’t follow suit. And that continues today, despite companies recruiting for about one million positions. Matt Lundy looks at Canada’s job-changing rate.

Here’s the best-case scenario now for stocks (and you’re not going to like it)

As bad as the economy has been during the first half of the year, we ain’t seen nothing yet. As David Rosenberg writes, the lagged effects of what the U.S. Federal Reserve has already done haven’t fully emerged, and gross domestic product (GDP) data is going to get worse, not better. So if the stock market has rallied on expectations of a recession with a “soft landing,” then big disappointment lies ahead. And seeing as stocks typically bottom around five months before a recession ends, it would be totally irresponsible to be calling a trough so early. The best-case scenario is the S&P 500 at 3,100, or down at least 20 per cent from where we are today.

The drop in Canadian home prices has only just begun

Canada’s average home price could decrease by as much as 25 per cent from peak values in February by the end of next year, writes Rachelle Younglai. Since the Bank of Canada started raising interest rates in March to rein in inflation, sales volumes have plummeted, and the average home price is down 18.5 per cent from February to June. Economists at the Desjardins Group have had to drastically revise their forecast because the market is correcting faster than anticipated. Areas that saw the biggest price gains during the first two years of the pandemic – such as Toronto suburbs and smaller Ontario cities, where home prices rose more than 80 per cent – are likely to see the largest declines.

Weed the North: Why some cities are crammed with cannabis shops – and others are barren

More than three years after recreational cannabis was legalized in Canada, nearly 100 municipalities across Ontario, Manitoba and British Columbia still outlaw pot shops, which means some cities are teeming with pot shops, while the next town over, there’s zero retail presence. In Toronto, for example, there are about 450 cannabis stores – and dozens more applications under review – while in nearby Mississauga, the seventh largest city in the country, there are none. Irene Galea and Matt Lundy examine the uneven retail landscape of cannabis and why some local politicians remain hesitant to support it.

Municipalities in Southern Ontario that have opted in or out of having cannabis stores within their jurisdictions

Opted in

Opted out

Toronto

Mississauga

Note: Grey areas include First Nations, provincial and national parks,

and places for which there are no data

THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: ALCOHOL AND GAMING COMMISSION OF ONTARIO

Municipalities in Southern Ontario that have opted in or out of having cannabis stores within their jurisdictions

Opted in

Opted out

Toronto

Mississauga

Note: Grey areas include First Nations, provincial and national parks,

and places for which there are no data

THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: ALCOHOL AND GAMING COMMISSION OF ONTARIO

Toronto

Municipalities in Southern Ontario that have opted in or out of having cannabis stores within their jurisdictions

Mississauga

Opted in

Opted out

THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: ALCOHOL AND GAMING COMMISSION OF ONTARIO

Note: Grey areas include First Nations, provincial and national parks, and places for which there are no data

Now that you’re all caught up, prepare for the week ahead with the Globe’s investing calendar.

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