U.S. consumer prices fell for the first time in 10 months in March, weighed down by a decline in the cost of gasoline, but underlying inflation continued to firm amid rising prices for health-care and rental accommodation.
The drop in the headline monthly inflation reading reported by the Labour Department on Wednesday is likely temporary as producer prices increased solidly in March.
In addition, the tightening labour market is expected to start generating significant wage inflation in the second half of the year. As such, many economists believe the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three more times this year.
The U.S. central bank increased borrowing costs last month and forecast at least two additional rate hikes in 2018.
“U.S. inflation is warming up rather than heating up,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “Still, the upward trend could suffice to nudge the Fed three more times this year.”
The Consumer Price Index slipped 0.1 per cent last month, the first and largest drop since May, 2017, after climbing 0.2 per cent in February, the Labour Department said.
In the 12 months through March, the CPI increased 2.4 per cent. That was the largest annual gain in a year and followed February’s 2.2-per-cent increase. Annual inflation is rising as the big price declines from last year drop from the calculation.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI climbed 0.2 per cent, matching February’s increase.
The so-called core CPI rose 2.1 per cent year on year in March, the largest advance since February, 2017, after increasing 1.8 per cent in February. The annual core CPI also accelerated as the drag from last year’s plunge in prices for cellphone service plans dropped out of the calculation.
The core CPI is now well above the 1.8-per-cent annual average increase over the past 10 years. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI unchanged in March and the core CPI rising 0.2 per cent from the prior month.
The Fed tracks a different index, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE) excluding food and energy, which has consistently run below the central bank’s 2-per-cent target since mid-2012.
FLIRTING WITH TARGET
Last year’s low prices for cellphone service plans are also expected to fall out of the calculation for March PCE price index data, which are scheduled for release on April 30.
This factor was also highlighted in minutes of the Fed’s March 20-21 policy meeting, published on Wednesday.
According to the minutes, “several participants noted that the 12-month PCE price inflation rate would likely shift upward when the March data are released because the effects of the outsized decline in the prices of cell phone service plans in March of last year will drop out of that calculation.”
Economists are forecasting the core PCE price index increasing 1.9 per cent year on year in March after rising 1.6 per cent in February.
“This suggests to us that the Fed’s preferred core PCE price inflation rate will be running at 2.0 per cent by the June report, if not sooner,” said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.
The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies, while prices for U.S. Treasuries rose. Stocks on Wall Street were mostly down as investors worried about rising tensions between the United States and Russia over a possible U.S. military action against Syria.
Inflation is also expected to get a boost from a US$1.5-trillion income tax cut package and increased government spending, as well as a weakening U.S. dollar.
Gasoline prices tumbled 4.9 per cent in March, the largest drop since last May, after falling 0.9 per cent in February. Food prices edged up 0.1 per cent after being unchanged in February.
The core CPI was lifted by rising rents and health-care costs. Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence, which is what a homeowner would pay to rent or receive from renting a home, increased 0.3 per cent last month after climbing 0.2 per cent in February.
Health-care costs shot up 0.4 per cent, with prices for hospital care jumping 0.6 per cent and the cost of doctor visits rising 0.2 per cent. Health-care costs increased 2.0 per cent year on year, below the 2.9-per-cent average annual rate over the past 10 years.
Apparel prices fell 0.6 per cent after two straight months of robust gains. There were also declines in the cost of telecommunication, used cars and trucks, tobacco and education.