Skip to main content
The Globe and Mail
Support Quality Journalism
The Globe and Mail
First Access to Latest
Investment News
Collection of curated
e-books and guides
Inform your decisions via
Globe Investor Tools
Just$1.99
per week
for first 24 weeks

Enjoy unlimited digital access
Enjoy Unlimited Digital Access
Get full access to globeandmail.com
Just $1.99 per week for the first 24 weeks
Just $1.99 per week for the first 24 weeks
var select={root:".js-sub-pencil",control:".js-sub-pencil-control",open:"o-sub-pencil--open",closed:"o-sub-pencil--closed"},dom={},allowExpand=!0;function pencilInit(o){var e=arguments.length>1&&void 0!==arguments[1]&&arguments[1];select.root=o,dom.root=document.querySelector(select.root),dom.root&&(dom.control=document.querySelector(select.control),dom.control.addEventListener("click",onToggleClicked),setPanelState(e),window.addEventListener("scroll",onWindowScroll),dom.root.removeAttribute("hidden"))}function isPanelOpen(){return dom.root.classList.contains(select.open)}function setPanelState(o){dom.root.classList[o?"add":"remove"](select.open),dom.root.classList[o?"remove":"add"](select.closed),dom.control.setAttribute("aria-expanded",o)}function onToggleClicked(){var l=!isPanelOpen();setPanelState(l)}function onWindowScroll(){window.requestAnimationFrame(function() {var l=isPanelOpen(),n=0===(document.body.scrollTop||document.documentElement.scrollTop);n||l||!allowExpand?n&&l&&(allowExpand=!0,setPanelState(!1)):(allowExpand=!1,setPanelState(!0))});}pencilInit(".js-sub-pencil",!1); // via darwin-bg var slideIndex = 0; carousel(); function carousel() { var i; var x = document.getElementsByClassName("subs_valueprop"); for (i = 0; i < x.length; i++) { x[i].style.display = "none"; } slideIndex++; if (slideIndex> x.length) { slideIndex = 1; } x[slideIndex - 1].style.display = "block"; setTimeout(carousel, 2500); }
  • Ontario economy has peaked
  • A swearing-in I’d love to see
  • Stocks, loonie at a glance
  • Rogers profit rises 2 per cent
  • Comcast drops chase for Fox assets

Peak Ontario

Ontario’s economy has peaked.

This obviously isn’t Premier Doug Ford’s making, but it is something he and his young Progressive Conservative government will have to deal with.

Nor does it to suggest that the province is going to hell in a handbasket after three strong years. It’s simply headed for slower growth. Unless, of course, the Trump administration carries through with threats to punish auto imports with stiff tariffs, in which case hell in a handbasket may be applicable.

Story continues below advertisement

Recent numbers from Ontario’s Ministry of Finance show economic growth slowed in the first quarter.

Among other things, interprovincial exports may have climbed by 0.5 per cent, but those to other countries slipped 0.2 per cent, for a total gain of just 0.1 per cent.

And, of course, the housing market has seen a policy-induced slowdown aimed at easing inflated prices.

”Ontario’s economy expanded 1.4 per cent, annualized, in Q1, as lower net exports carved into solid gains in consumer spending and business investment,” noted Bank of Montreal senior economist Robert Kavcic.

Citing a “gradual cooling” in several indicators, he said BMO has already factored “cooler activity” into its projection for real GDP growth of 1.9 per cent this year.

“That would be down from a 2.7-per-cent run rate over the prior three years,” he said.

“Note that the province was assumed 2.2-per-cent growth in the 2018 budget, with a slowdown to 1.8 per cent by 2019.”

Story continues below advertisement

The great unknown is whether the Trump administration hits auto imports with tariffs of 25 per cent, a possibility after its levies on steel and aluminum.

We’ll learn more about that today as the U.S. Department of Commerce launches a public hearing.

“The hearing provides an opportunity for stakeholders to present information and advice relevant to the investigation on the effects of imports of automobiles and automotive parts on national security,” the department said.

“The investigation will consider all relevant facts and input from stakeholders compiled during the notice and comment process before reaching a final determination, which will be based on facts and the statutory requirements,” it added.

“Information from Thursday’s hearing and the more than 2,300 public comments submitted on this issue, in addition to rebuttal comments, will be considered in the Department of Commerce’s investigation and analysis.”

While some observers see the tariff threats as a negotiating ploy, particularly given the complex integration of the North American auto industry, others warn that President Donald Trump’s actions to date suggest they should be taken seriously.

Story continues below advertisement

Ontario would be in trouble were the tariffs to hit.

Indeed, noted Royal Bank of Canada senior economist Nathan Janzen, they could cut Canadian GDP by 0.5 per cent.

“Ontario accounts for about 90 per cent of Canada’s motor vehicle and parts production,” Mr. Janzen said Wednesday.

“I think it would be reasonable to assume the Ontario impact would be double or more the impact on Canada as a whole.”

Royce Mendes of CIBC World Markets, meanwhile, recently forecast that Canadian auto production would decline by more than 400,000 units a year if the U.S. hit all auto-exporting countries.

If it singled out Canada, that number would rise to about 900,000.

Story continues below advertisement

“After also accounting for a 10-per-cent tariff on parts, and the fact that reduced Canadian production would require fewer foreign inputs, we estimate the direct drag on GDP to be about 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively, for each scenario,” Mr. Mendes said of the Canadian economy.

“Almost all of the auto production occurs in Ontario, so it’s going to be a serious hit to the provincial economy,” he added in an interview Wednesday.

“It almost certainly means that the Ontario economy would at least be in a mild recession.”

Read more

A swearing-in I’d love to see

I know I said I wouldn’t make America great again, but I really meant to say I would

The Associated Press

Read more

Stocks, loonie at a glance

Read more

Rogers profit rises

Rogers Communications Inc. reported unexpectedly strong wireless numbers for the second quarter, attributing a wave of new subscribers to better customer service and improvements to its network, The Globe and Mail’s Christine Dobby reports.

Story continues below advertisement

The Toronto-based cable, wireless and media company said Thursday it added 122,000 new wireless customers on contract in the three months ended June 30.

Revenue at the wireless business, the company’s biggest division, was up by 7 per cent to $2.21-billion and helped boost overall sales at Rogers to $3.76-billion. Profit increased by 2 per cent to $538-million, or $1.04 per share.

Read more
More news
Streetwise
Insight
Inside the Market
In case you missed it
Report an error Editorial code of conduct
Due to technical reasons, we have temporarily removed commenting from our articles. We hope to have this fixed soon. Thank you for your patience. If you are looking to give feedback on our new site, please send it along to feedback@globeandmail.com. If you want to write a letter to the editor, please forward to letters@globeandmail.com.

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff. Non-subscribers can read and sort comments but will not be able to engage with them in any way. Click here to subscribe.

If you would like to write a letter to the editor, please forward it to letters@globeandmail.com. Readers can also interact with The Globe on Facebook and Twitter .

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff. Non-subscribers can read and sort comments but will not be able to engage with them in any way. Click here to subscribe.

If you would like to write a letter to the editor, please forward it to letters@globeandmail.com. Readers can also interact with The Globe on Facebook and Twitter .

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff.

We aim to create a safe and valuable space for discussion and debate. That means:

  • Treat others as you wish to be treated
  • Criticize ideas, not people
  • Stay on topic
  • Avoid the use of toxic and offensive language
  • Flag bad behaviour

Comments that violate our community guidelines will be removed.

Read our community guidelines here

Discussion loading ...

To view this site properly, enable cookies in your browser. Read our privacy policy to learn more.
How to enable cookies