Canada’s export development agency on Thursday predicted global growth of 6.6 per cent in 2021 after a 4.3 per cent decline this year amid the coronavirus pandemic, but said the domestic energy and tourism sectors would suffer.
Export Development Canada (EDC), in a semi-annual forecast, said Canada’s food, advanced technology, telecommunications, wood products and minerals sectors would do well next year.
The forecast is more gloomy for the energy sector. Canada is one of the world’s largest crude exporters and even before the coronavirus outbreak slashed demand, the sector had been struggling with low prices.
“Any economy … that is energy-dependent is facing difficulties,” EDC chief economist Peter Hall said by phone.
The forecast said ample supplies and uncertain growth would “keep the lid on” key commodity prices over the near-term.
In its overall forecast, EDC said restrictions imposed to combat the pandemic had helped build up global consumer demand as well as bank balances and savings rates.
“This suggests fundamental resilience, at the very least, (and) the potential to rebound from the current mess,” it said.
EDC forecast the Canadian dollar would stay in the 74 to 76 U.S. cent range this year and next.
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