OPEC tentatively agreed an oil output cut on Thursday but was waiting for a commitment from non-OPEC heavyweight Russia before deciding the exact volumes for a production reduction aimed at propping up crude prices, two sources from the group said.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak flew home from Vienna earlier for talks with President Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg. Novak returns to Austria’s capital for discussions among Saudi-led OPEC and the group’s allies on Friday.
The price of crude has fallen almost a third since October but U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries make oil even cheaper by refraining from output cuts.
“We still want Russia to cut as much as possible,” Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told reporters as the OPEC meeting concluded without yielding concrete figures.
“I’m not confident but I hope to reach a deal … Hopefully, he (Novak) will come tonight,” Falih said.
Possible output cuts by OPEC and its allies range from 0.5-1.5 million bpd. A reduction of 1 million bpd. would be acceptable and so far was the main scenario, Falih said.
Brent oil futures fell as much as 5 per cent to below $59 per barrel on fears that there could be no deal but later recovered somewhat, trading down 3.5 per cent at 1720 GMT.
“One million bpd. may disappoint many. But should the cut be from a September or October baseline, rather than November, the net impact would be sufficient to limit storage builds,” Greg Sharenow, executive vice-president for Pimco, said on the sidelines of the OPEC meeting.
“It is unlikely to spark a meaningful price rally, but also will not be so dire either. In many respects it is the middle road, which may be the optimal solution,” said Sharenow, who helps manage a $15 billion commodities fund at the $1.77 trillion U.S. investment management firm.
OPEC delegates have said the group and its allies could cut by 1 million bpd. if Russia contributed 150,000 bpd. of that reduction. If Russia contributed around 250,000 bpd., the overall cut could exceed 1.3 million bpd.
Novak said on Thursday that Russia would find it harder to cut oil output in winter than other producers because of the cold weather.
Oil prices have crashed as Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates raised output since June after Trump called for higher production to offset lower exports from Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer.
Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States have been vying for the position of top crude producer in recent years. The United States is not part of any output-limiting initiative due to its antitrust legislation and fragmented oil industry.
On Thursday, U.S. government figures showed the country had become a net exporter of crude oil and refined products for the first time on record, underscoring how the surge in production has altered the supply equation in world markets.
TRUMP RAISES PRESSURE
Iranian exports have plummeted after the United States imposed fresh sanctions on Tehran in November. But Washington gave sanctions waivers to some buyers of Iranian crude, further raising fears of an oil glut next year.
“Hopefully OPEC will be keeping oil flows as is, not restricted. The world does not want to see, or need, higher oil prices!” Trump wrote in a tweet on Wednesday.
Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said on Thursday he would support a cut as long as Iran did not need to reduce its own output. Iraqi Oil Minister Thamer Ghadhban said Iraq as OPEC’s second-largest producer would support and join a cut.
Possibly complicating any OPEC decision is the crisis around the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October. Trump has backed Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman despite calls from many U.S. politicians to impose stiff sanctions on Riyadh.