A complete halt to Russian natural gas exports would cost Germany 12.7% of economic performance in the second half of 2022, data presented by the vbw industry association of the state of Bavaria said on Tuesday.
As concern mounts of further reductions to Russian supplies of gas to Europe, the German government last week launched the second of a total of three escalation stages of its gas security plan.
In the event supplies are halted altogether, data analyzed by researchers Prognos, commissioned by vbw, showed that the glass, steel, chemicals, ceramics, food and textile industries would be the first and hardest hit sectors in a country that consumed 1,003 terawatt hours (TWh) of gas in 2021, of which industry took 36%.
Including knock-on effects, such as the impact on delivery chains, the estimated loss in value creation could amount to 193 billion euros ($204.33 billion) in the six-month period, the study said.
“The abrupt end of Russian gas imports would also have a significant impact on the workforce in Germany. Arithmetically, around 5.6 million jobs would be affected by the consequences,” vwb’s Managing Director Bertram Brossardt said.
The gas heating season for the half of Germany’s 41 million households that rely on gas starts in October, by which time the economy ministry wants underground storage facilities - which can hold enough for two and a half months of consumption - to be 80% full compared with 60.3% now.
To address possible gaps, the government has also stepped up plans to import more liquefied natural gas (LNG) to lessen reliance on pipeline gas.
It has launched public purchasing tenders for gas and a savings campaign.
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