U.S. Treasury yields tumbled on Wednesday after incomplete election results pointed to a still-divided national government and the likelihood for a smaller stimulus plan to revive the pandemic-slammed economy.
Both Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic rival Joe Biden had possible paths to reach the required 270 Electoral College votes to win the White House, while Congress was likely to remain split between the two parties..
Treasury yields, which had climbed to multi-month highs ahead of the election results, plummeted when chances faded for a Democratic sweep, along with massive stimulus spending, that had been priced into the market.
The benchmark 10-year yield, which hit a session low of 0.756%, was last at 0.7696%, well below a five-month high of 0.945% touched briefly overnight.
The 30-year yield, which traded as high as 1.757%, was last at 1.5484%, up from a session low of 1.506%.
“Yesterday afternoon the market was probably pricing in about a 70%-75% chance of a (Democratic) sweep ... the back end of the curve was for sale and there was significant selling pressure,” said Michael de Pass, global head of U.S. Treasury trading at Citadel Securities. “As Trump won Florida and you realized this was going to be a bit of a close race and not a landslide, the tone changed very, very quickly.”
Even if Biden were to win, a Republican-controlled Senate would likely mean a less-generous aid package, easing the fear of massive new supply hitting the market.
“We don’t have the risk of inflation coming from trillions of dollars dumped into the economy. We don’t have the risk of all that supply having to be funded on top of the supply we’re still trying to fund from (the CARES Act),” said Tom Simons, a money market economist at Jefferies in New York.
Republican U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Wednesday called on Congress to approve a new coronavirus aid bill by year end.
The market also mulled the possibility of a drawn-out court battle with the Trump campaign seeking a recount in Wisconsin and suing to stop vote counts in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
“In that environment, I think you see sort of a drift lower in rates and flatter in the curve,” said Ben Jeffery, a strategist at BMO Capital Markets in New York.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury said on Wednesday morning it will sell $54 billion of three-year notes, $41 billion of 10-year notes and $27 billion of 30-year bonds next week.
John Bellows, portfolio manager at Western Asset Management, said a move down in long-term Treasury yields just after the refunding announcement was only part of a broader swing tied to politics during the day and that the agency’s plans were “kind of a wash” in terms of their overall impact.
On Monday, the Treasury announced it expects to borrow $617 billion in the fourth quarter, assuming enactment of an additional $1 trillion in spending.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, was last at 62.30 basis points, falling from a session high of 77 basis points, the widest spread since mid-March.
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