China’s politically sensitive trade surplus soared to a record US$75.4-billion in November as exports surged 21.1 per cent over a year earlier, propelled by American consumer demand.
Exports to the United States rose 46 per cent despite lingering tariff hikes in a trade war with Washington, customs data showed Monday.
Total exports rose to US$268-billion, accelerating from October’s 11.4-per-cent growth. Imports gained 5 per cent to US$192.6-billion, up from the previous month’s 4.7 per cent.
Chinese exporters have benefited from the economy’s relatively early reopening after the Communist Party declared the coronavirus pandemic under control in March, while foreign competitors still are hampered by anti-disease controls.
“Exports were much stronger than expected in November,” Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said in a report.
Forecasters say that surge is unlikely to last into 2021 once coronavirus vaccines are rolled out.
“We expect export performance to be less impressive,” Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics said in a report.
China’s global trade surplus for the first 11 months of 2020 is US$460 billion, up 21.4 per cent from this time last year, already one of the highest ever recorded.
Exports to the U.S. rose to US$51.9-billion, while imports of American goods gained 33 per cent to US$14.6-billion. The trade surplus with the U.S. swelled 52 per cent over a year earlier to US$37.3-billion.
Beijing promised to buy more American soybeans, natural gas and other exports as part of the “Phase 1” agreement signed in January and aimed at ending a costly tariff battle over Chinese technology ambitions. China fell behind on meeting those commitments earlier in the year, but is catching up as demand rebounds.
The two governments agreed to postpone further planned tariff hikes on each other’s goods, but most penalties already imposed on billions of dollars of imports stayed in place.
Chinese imports are growing faster by volume than by value because demand has been chilled by the shutdown of travel and industry, driving prices lower.
China is on track to become the only major economy to grow this year while activity in the U.S., Europe and Japan falls.
China’s economy shrank by 6.8 per cent from a year earlier in the first three months of 2020 after factories, shops and offices were shut down to fight the virus. Growth rebounded to 3.2 per cent in the second quarter and accelerated to 4.9 per cent in the three months ending in September.
Automakers and other large manufacturers are back to normal activity, helping to drive demand for imported iron ore, copper and other raw materials. Retail sales are back above previrus levels and rose 4.3 per cent over a year earlier in October.
Also in November, exports to the 27-country European Union rose 8.6 per cent over a year ago to US$37.5-billion, while imports of European goods gained 4.5 per cent to US$26.2-billion. China’s trade surplus with Europe widened by 20 per cent to US$11.3-billion.
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