Coronavirus Update: Canada could see 10,000 daily COVID-19 cases by mid-December – five times the first wave

Good evening, here are the coronavirus updates you need to know tonight.

Top headlines:

1. Canada could see new COVID-19 cases climb to 10,000 a day - five times what the country faced last spring
2. Ontario adjusted its framework for COVID-19 restrictions following new modelling
3. Almost 1 in 5 Canadian businesses have less than six months before cuts or closure are necessary

In Canada, there have been at least 286,706 cases reported. In the last week 30,899 new cases were announced, 30 per cent more than the previous week. There have also been at least 229,834 recoveries and 10,826 deaths. Health officials have administered more than 11,335,523 tests.

Worldwide, there have been at least 52,733,290 cases confirmed and 1,293,661 deaths reported.

Sources: Canada data is compiled from government websites, Johns Hopkins and COVID-19 Canada Open Data Working Group; international data is from Johns Hopkins University.

Coronavirus explainers: Coronavirus in maps and charts • Lockdown rules and reopening • Mask-wearing rules • Back to school guide • Essential resources

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Coronavirus in Canada

• In Ontario, the Ford government changed its framework for COVID-19 restrictions after new modelling shows the province could see 6,500 new daily cases by mid-December. The framework faced criticism following its launch last week with the organization representing 43,000 physicians calling it “too lax.” Peel advises against in-person Diwali gatherings. The province reported 1,396 new cases and 17 deaths related to COVID-19 today.
• Saskatchewan expanded its mask rule to all indoor public spaces in communities of more than 5,000 people and added a 10 p.m. curfew for alcohol sales. The rules, in place for 28 days, are a “slowdown” to avoid another lockdown, the province’s health minister said.
• In Alberta, Calgary asked for powers to enforce COVID-19 health measures as the city reported more than 3,500 active cases in the Calgary area.

In Ottawa, the country’s top doctor said the country is on track to see 10,000 new COVID-19 cases per day by early December, based on the government’s pandemic modelling.

• The pressure of 10,000 new daily cases on the health care system "would be huge,” Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam said. “The already exhausted health care workers will be extremely stretched.”
• In the last seven days, the average number of daily new cases has climbed to more than 4,300, double what it was a month ago.
• If Canada hits 10,000 daily new cases, that would be five times higher than the daily cases that were tracked at any time during the first wave of the pandemic.

Still in Ottawa, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged the provinces to put in place more stringent health measures, warning that the government doesn’t have “infinite resources” to stem the regional spread of COVID-19.

Retraining: The federal government will spend $1.5-billion on retraining efforts for workers in sectors like construction, transportation and hospitality, which have been hard hit by the pandemic. Canada’s unemployment rate was 8.9 per cent in October, leaving 1.8-million people out of work.

Coronavirus around the world

• In the United States, President Donald Trump said a COVID-19 vaccine would ship in “a matter of weeks,” even as the FDA has yet to grant necessary emergency approvals. The country continues to set records for confirmed cases of COVID-19 as hospitalizations near critical levels.
• France reported a sharp drop in new COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations at the end of the second week of its nationwide lockdown.

Coronavirus and business

Nearly one in three Canadian businesses are unsure of how long they can continue operating at current levels of sales and expenses before cutting staff or shutting down, according a Statistics Canada survey.

• Almost one in five owners say they have six months or less before cuts or closure are necessary. The distress is highest in the arts and hospitality industries.
• Despite the sales disruption, around three-quarters of the surveyed companies had enough cash or liquid assets on hand to operate. However, 44 per cent of businesses said they are unable to take on more debt, with restaurants and hotels especially at their limits.

Also today: Cineplex revenue sinks 85 per cent as pandemic restrictions continue to hit attendance.

And: The U.S. federal reserve said the country’s economy is still in a “deep hole” as the continued spread of COVID-19 poses a risk to any recovery.

Globe opinion

• André Picard: The pandemic is surging. We need more leadership and less urging
• Eric Reguly: Vaccines will become a game changer. Mass testing could have been, but was overlooked
• Robin Wiebe: Will Canada’s pandemic-stricken urban centres survive?
• The Globe Editorial Board: The evidence is conclusive: Canada can’t beat the pandemic by passing the buck

More reporting

• After the crisis, will urban transit systems be able to bounce back?
• Experts around the world say to wear a mask indoors. But do province-wide mandates work?
• Challenges remain for the Toronto Raptors to play at home, the city’s deputy chief of public health says.
• Sewage testing could play a part in protecting schools and hospitals from coronavirus outbreaks.
• Mayors in British Columbia are starting budget planning with trepidation as deficits pile up.–—
• The ski season begins early in Western Canada despite concerns over rising COVID-19 cases.

Information centre

• Rob Carrick’s 10-point checklist of things you should have done by now to protect or improve your money situation. Tips for minimizing damage to your credit score; how to manage retirement anxiety during difficult times; and things to think about if you’re considering home delivery.
• Here are the expectations for self-isolation; tips for managing anxiety and protecting your mental health; and what to do if you think you have the virus. Wash your hands. How to break a bad habit (like touching your face). Is flying safe?
• The best foods to eat to maintain an immune system-friendly diet; and how to keep a healthy diet while working from home; four eating tips when working from home; and five mistakes that might cause you to gain unwanted weight. Here are the essentials to stock up on and how to shop safely for groceries; the best pantry staples and how to stop stress-eating. What to cook with rhubarb (aside from pie).
• Here’s what you should do if you are newly laid off; how to apply for CERB, EI, and other financial benefits; how the CRA might identify CERB fraud; and other coronavirus and employment questions answered. What to do if your employees don’t return to work because they want to collect CERB.

Sources: Canada data are compiled from government websites, Johns Hopkins University and COVID-19 Canada Open Data Working Group; international data are from Johns Hopkins.

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