Coronavirus Update: Canada on track for 20,000 daily new cases by end of December, modelling shows

Good evening, here are the coronavirus updates you need to know tonight.

Top headlines:

1. New federal data obtained by The Globe and Mail shows Canada is on track for 20,000 daily new cases by the end of 2020
2. Winter of our kids’ discontent: No more snow days during pandemic
3. Doug Ford warns of possible second ‘lockdown,’ new restrictions

In Canada, there have been at least 315,750 cases reported. In the last week 33,171 new cases were announced, 9% more than the previous week.

There have also been at least 252,294 recoveries and 11,265 deaths. Health officials have administered more than 11,728,264 tests.

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Worldwide, there have been at least 56,247,982 cases confirmed and 1,349,380 deaths reported.

Sources: Canada data is compiled from government websites, Johns Hopkins and COVID-19 Canada Open Data Working Group; international data is from Johns Hopkins University.

Coronavirus explainers: Coronavirus in maps and charts • Lockdown rules and reopening • Mask-wearing rules • Back to school guide • Essential resources

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Coronavirus in Canada

• School boards in Ontario are planning to continue teaching remotely during winter snow days if buses are cancelled, as parents worry about the learning loss among children in the pandemic. Yesterday, Premier Doug Ford warned of a possible second lockdown in the province. Today, Ontario reported that 150 people are in ICU and there are 1,210 new COVID-19 cases.
• In British Columbia, a new report from care home advocates urged the province to introduce the use rapid testing protocols, clear guidelines for essential family caregivers, and better pay for workers. Yesterday, Premier John Horgan called for restrictions on non-essential travel ahead of the holiday season.
• In Quebec, Premier François Legault said that if Quebeckers isolate for one week before Christmas and one week after, gatherings up to 10 people would be allowed between Dec. 24 and Dec. 27. Lockdowns across most of the province were extended until Jan. 11. Quebec reported 1,207 new cases today and 34 more deaths.
• Manitoba, which has the highest per capita infection rate in Canada, announced it’s tightening the rules for social gatherings and shopping. The province reported 475 new infections and eight deaths today.
• New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland and Labrador are reporting a rise in cases, raising concerns that the protection of the so-called Atlantic bubble may be weakening.

Canada could see more than 20,000 daily new COVID-19 cases by the end of December – more than quadruple the current daily case count, new modelling shows.

• Today, The Globe and Mail obtained federal pandemic modelling that the Public Health Agency of Canada will release publicly on Friday.
• Despite the rapidly worsening projections, a senior source told The Globe that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is not expected to unveil any new measures at his press conference on Friday.

The Globe is not identifying the official because they were not authorized to publicly discuss the matter.

Coronavirus around the world

• A new, mutated strain of the novel coronavirus stemming from mink farms in Denmark is “most likely” extinct, the health ministry said on Thursday, amid fears the new strain could compromise COVID-19 vaccines.
• Africa has surpassed 2 million confirmed coronavirus cases as the continent’s top public health official warned Thursday that “we are inevitably edging toward a second wave” of infections.
• The United States said on Thursday it will extend restrictions barring non-essential travel at land borders with Canada and Mexico through Dec. 21.

Coronavirus and business

More than 20,000 women left the work force between February and October, according to a new report from the Royal Bank of Canada. The pandemic and the demands of childcare are likely the cause of the exodus by women.

• Mothers with children under 6 made up 41 per cent of the labour force in February and yet they account for two-thirds of the exodus, the study said.

Also today: Both Southwest and United Airlines see weak travel demand over the holidays and in the first quarter of 2021.

Globe opinion

• Ted Kouri and Trevor Tombe: “While the COVID-19 pandemic will certainly make things worse, the core of our fiscal challenge predates this crisis and results from choices made by successive Alberta governments over the course of decades.”

More reporting

• I’ve tested positive for COVID-19 and recovered. Can I go back to a mask-free life?
• The COVID-19 pandemic has made it clear: Data are not objective
• Oil prices pull back as a surge in COVID-19 cases raises concerns about demand
• Is Europe’s Christmas economy worth salvaging? Unless you’re in retail, the answer is: Possibly not
• The global economy is recovering from depths of COVID-19 crisis, but it may be losing momentum, the International Monetary Fund said in a new report today
• The labour market in the United States is losing steam as the pandemic continues to rage across the country

Information centre

• Rob Carrick’s 10-point checklist of things you should have done by now to protect or improve your money situation. Tips for minimizing damage to your credit score; how to manage retirement anxiety during difficult times; and things to think about if you’re considering home delivery.
• Here are the expectations for self-isolation; tips for managing anxiety and protecting your mental health; and what to do if you think you have the virus. Wash your hands. How to break a bad habit (like touching your face). Is flying safe?
• The best foods to eat to maintain an immune system-friendly diet; and how to keep a healthy diet while working from home; four eating tips when working from home; and five mistakes that might cause you to gain unwanted weight. Here are the essentials to stock up on and how to shop safely for groceries; the best pantry staples and how to stop stress-eating. What to cook with rhubarb (aside from pie).
• Here’s what you should do if you are newly laid off; how to apply for CERB, EI, and other financial benefits; how the CRA might identify CERB fraud; and other coronavirus and employment questions answered. What to do if your employees don’t return to work because they want to collect CERB.

Sources: Canada data are compiled from government websites, Johns Hopkins University and COVID-19 Canada Open Data Working Group; international data are from Johns Hopkins.

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