June NATO summit to decide if buildup in Baltics, Eastern Europe becomes permanent

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NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says leaders of the military alliance will make a decision by June on whether to transform its massive defence buildup in the Baltics and Eastern Europe into a more permanent presence, boosting its ability for rapid response to crises.

Mr. Stoltenberg, the top civilian at the 30-member North Atlantic Treaty Organization, told an Ottawa defence conference that Russia’s military assault on Ukraine will require longer-term changes at the 72-year-old alliance.

The Secretary-General said Russian President Vladimir Putin’s wish has so far backfired. “President Putin wants less NATO on Russia’s borders. But he is getting more NATO.”

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Several years ago, NATO member countries deployed about 5,000 troops, plus equipment, to NATO’s eastern flank after Moscow’s annexation of Crimea. In recent months this force strength has been doubled in the face of Russia’s threat to Ukraine.

The Secretary-General was asked Wednesday at the Ottawa Conference on Security and Defence whether NATO would have to move to a permanent defence of its eastern flank, which includes the Baltic States, Poland, as well as Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania.

He said decisions will be made this summer. “I think we need to actually now also have a serious assessment of longer-term adaptation of NATO. Our posture, our presence, and also how we can strengthen our ability to reinforce quickly,” Mr. Stoltenberg said.

If NATO does decide to transform what it calls its “Enhanced Forward Presence” on the eastern flank, this could mean bigger demands for defence spending by member countries. Canada will soon have more than 700 troops in Latvia as part of its leadership of a multinational battle group, as well as two frigates, a surveillance plane and six jet fighters on patrol in the region.

David Perry, vice-president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, said it seems like NATO is moving toward a permanent presence on its eastern flank. “Either permanent rotational cycle, or stationing them,” he said. “The alliance wants to bolster its deterrent posture toward Russia, and committing troops for longer or permanently sends a different signal about commitment.”

Mr. Stoltenberg said a discussion on the matter will begin next week and decisions will be taken at a NATO leaders’ summit in June.

“We will have a defence ministerial meeting in NATO next week.... I don’t expect conclusions, but I expect that that will be the first meeting where we start deliberations within the Alliance,” he said. “And then, as we move towards the summit in late June, we will have a final decision.”

He also defended the NATO alliance’s unwillingness to enforce a no-fly zone in the airspace above Ukraine despite repeated pleas by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to “close the skies” over his country or send Kyiv fighter aircraft.

“NATO has a responsibility to ensure that this conflict does not escalate beyond Ukraine. Because this would be even more dangerous, destructive, and deadly. For Ukraine, and for all of us.”

He said a “no-fly zone entails NATO massively attacking Russian air-defence systems in Ukraine, in Belarus, and in Russia. It entails direct confrontation between NATO air capabilities and Russian air capabilities. This will significantly escalate the war, the fighting in Ukraine – but also of course, risk a full-fledged war in Europe, involving NATO Allies. NATO against Russia.”

The Secretary-General also called on NATO member countries to increase defence spending to reach the alliance commitment of 2 per cent of annual economic output. Canada currently spending about 1.4 per cent of its gross domestic product on the military.

Mr. Stoltenberg praised Canada’s commitments, including its command of a multinational battlegroup in Latvia, but said he expects countries to dig deeper.

“I would like to see all allies to do even more and I call on all allies to step up,” he said.

Major-General Paul Prévost, director of staff with the military’s Strategic Joint Staff, told the Commons defence committee that everything sent to Europe “will stay in theatre as long as necessary for NATO to defend.”

Since 2015, the Canadian military has trained thousands of Ukrainian soldiers in warfare and Maj.-Gen. Prévost said he’s not surprised that Russia is encountering stiffer resistance from Ukraine than he might have expected.

“Our assessment is Mr. Putin’s campaign is not going the way he had envisioned,” Maj.-Gen. Prévost told MPs.

“We see the same on the intelligence side. They are running into logistics problems … their equipment is failing.”

He said he thinks Mr. Putin miscalculated the readiness and determination of Ukrainians and underestimated the resolve of the allies to come in support of Ukraine by providing military aid.

He said Ukrainian forces have been fighting Russian fighters and Moscow-backed militants in eastern Ukraine for eight years “so they have learned a lot about” conflict with Russia.

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