Why Doug Ford will likely be a major 2019 election wild card

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No Canadian politician commanded more attention in 2018 than Doug Ford.

He won the leadership of a Progressive Conservative party that hadn’t even wanted him to run as a local candidate – and promptly led it to its first Ontario election win this century. Then he embarked upon a chaotic effort to assert his will – dramatically changing the rules of a Toronto election already under way, trying to install a family friend to run the provincial police force, suddenly yanking funding for government programs in ways that seemed designed to maximize outcry.

Now finally getting comfortable in office, Ontario’s Premier is ready to cede a bit of the spotlight in 2019 to …

Just kidding. Mr. Ford isn’t about to cede anything, to anyone. And that includes Andrew Scheer, the Conservative Party leader about to take centre stage in his bid for Justin Trudeau’s job.

One of the bigger wild cards in the coming year’s election campaign, Mr. Ford could be of help to Mr. Scheer – or considerable hindrance. And the federal Conservatives won’t have much control over which it is.

There are provincial politicians who defer to federal cousins during national campaigns. If Jason Kenney becomes premier of Alberta in the spring, he will be eager to help defeat Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals. But if Mr. Scheer decides Mr. Kenney is a liability and asks him to keep his head down, he will probably oblige.

Mr. Scheer would not dare make the same request of Mr. Ford, because it would likely blow up horribly on him.

Mr. Ford is not someone who responds well to being told not to do something he wants to do – and campaigning against Mr. Trudeau, mostly though not exclusively over carbon pricing, has already proven a favourite activity of the Premier.

There are several available explanations for why Mr. Ford goes beyond usual provincial sniping toward Ottawa. One is that he is the sort of politician who always needs someone to fight against, and Mr. Trudeau makes a better foil than provincial opposition leader Andrea Horwath. Another is that Mr. Trudeau, practically the embodiment of the “elites” Mr. Ford has long railed against, genuinely infuriates him. And railing against him plays well with the PC base.

Also: Mr. Ford is clearly drawn to the federal arena. At the least, he seems eager to position himself as a national alpha. And there are senior provincial Tories who truly believe that, if the opportunity arises, he could seek the federal Conservative leadership before finishing one term as Premier.

That last consideration offers particular disincentive for Mr. Scheer to publicly keep his distance from Mr. Ford or discourage him from participating in the federal campaign. While Mr. Scheer obviously aims to win his first election as Conservative Party Leader, he will likely want to stick around for a second even if he doesn’t. In that scenario, it would be a problem for him if Mr. Ford went around telling the party faithful that his exclusion contributed to their defeat.

So Mr. Scheer has little choice but to embrace Mr. Ford as an ally. And that’s not without upside.

Mr. Ford is capable of helping rally the Conservative base, including by drawing larger numbers to events than Mr. Scheer can. His brand of populism also appeals to some people who aren’t reliably Conservative, including non-white lower- and middle-income voters, and his stamp of approval for Mr. Scheer (or bashing of Mr. Trudeau) could carry some weight with them. And a provincial party that holds 74 of Ontario’s seats, versus the federal Conservatives' 32 in the same riding boundaries, has something to offer organizationally.

But even when his Tories won big last June, largely by being the default alternative to a Liberal government vastly more unpopular than Mr. Trudeau’s, Mr. Ford wasn’t beloved. Polls then showed far more Ontarians viewed him unfavourably than viewed him favourably. And the federal campaign will heat up right around the point Mr. Ford could be hitting mid-mandate doldrums that push his approval rating lower.

If his government is serious about deficit reduction, Ontarians will be feeling the pain coming out of its first budget in the spring. And Mr. Ford is at risk of drowning in ethics controversies by then. He already has an impressive string of them, highlighted by the attempted appointment of Ron Taverner to head the Ontario Provincial Police and costly meddling in personnel decisions of energy utilities; his rollback of political financing rules aimed at curtailing cash-for-access could quickly provide further fodder.

If that adds up to problems for the federal Conservatives in Ontario, it’s easy to imagine Mr. Ford causing grief in other provinces, too. That’s because it has already happened, in Quebec, when his government cut commitments to francophone Ontarians the same week Mr. Scheer addressed an Ontario PC convention.

To avoid that kind of situation again, Mr. Scheer’s officials will attempt to improve lines of communication with Mr. Ford’s. There have been behind-the-scenes tensions on that front since Mr. Ford won his party’s leadership, owing partly to him being surrounded by former Stephen Harper staffers – notably Jenni Byrne, who serves as his principal secretary – who are personae non gratae in the federal party. Recently the relationship has gone through Mr. Ford’s chief of staff, Dean French, and his counterpart with Mr. Scheer, Marc-André Leclerc, though Mr. French has been at the centre of so much controversy that it’s no sure thing he can hang on to the job.

Not much is ever sure with Ontario’s new government, other than the chaos. No national leader wants to be subject, after years of election preparation, to surprises caused by external forces – let alone those ostensibly on his side. But if it’s still Doug Ford’s world in 2019, the way it was in 2018, Andrew Scheer will have to live in it.

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