Premier Jim Prentice at the Alberta Legislature in Edmonton, Alberta. Amber Bracken for the Globe and MailAMBER BRACKEN/The Globe and Mail
Ten days ago, we said that Premier Jim Prentice of Alberta was under no obligation to seek a new mandate from the electorate, after nine former Wildrose MLAs joined the Progressive Conservative caucus. No major policy change was involved; there was no reversal of significant pre-existing public expectations.
Now, however, Mr. Prentice and his cabinet are openly thinking about a provincial sales tax or GST, in order to deal with a steep, virtually certain decline of $6-billion or $7-billion in the government's revenues.
To put it mildly, there is a deep-seated opposition to any provincial sales tax in Alberta.
The adhesion of Alberta to the Harmonized Sales Tax would be highly desirable, but hitherto has been far from desired by a large number of Albertans.
Notably, the stated "shared principles" of the PC and former Wildrose MLAs included "a commitment to not implementing a provincial sales tax and keeping Alberta's income and business taxes the lowest in Canada."
Under these circumstances, if the provincial government does decide in favour of a sales tax, Mr. Prentice should, after all, ask for a dissolution of the Legislative Assembly and seek a new mandate – which (all other things being equal) he is likely to deserve.
The experience of the neighbouring province of British Columbia – which has its own strains of left- and right-wing populism – has shown how toxic a proposed sales tax can become if it is not well aired and canvassed in a general election. In 2009, the Liberal government of Gordon Campbell had a good opportunity for B.C. to join the HST, along with Ontario, but it was only two months after the election; it wasn't a trick, but it looked like one. Eventually, there was a referendum; the HST was rejected and B.C. reverted to the old, worse sales tax, for the foreseeable future.
A general election is a time when a whole range of issues can be debated – rather than one hot-button topic such as a PST or HST.
It is encouraging that Ted Morton, a former Alberta finance minister, has now spoken about the effectiveness of a sales tax, though he is usually considered on the right wing of the PCs.
And it is not easy to see the NDP, the Liberals, or the Wildrose rump defeating the PCs over the sales-tax issue.
Reason may yet prevail.