Takahiro Hachigo has picked the best moment to take the reins at Honda Motor, although it doesn't seem so right now.
Yes, Honda's recall woes continue. About 23 million vehicles have been recalled to replace defective Takata airbags. Honda's quality reputation has taken more hits than a UFC palooka and global sales have stalled, forcing the Japanese auto maker to retreat from its plan to sell six million vehicles annually by 2017.
Some auto analysts suggest this tsunami of woe is a signal to sell Honda stock. As for buyers, even loyal Canadians have struggled keeping to the Honda way: sales slumped four per cent last month and are down about two per cent on the year.
So Hachigo arrives in his new gig faced with recalls, an aging lineup, quality gaffes and slumping sales. Yet Honda's eighth president can look forward to the next few years with optimism. Why? The auto maker will unleash a new-product blitz, the likes of which we've never seen from Honda.
The new HR-V is to be followed in July by a new Pilot, then a new Civic (sedan, coupe, hatchback) and the sizzling NSX supercar. That's just for the 2016 model year. For 2017, there's a new CR-V, a new Ridgeline pickup and a reinvented Odyssey minivan.
After splashing around in the doldrums for years, "Honda is hitting the sweet spot in its product cadence over the next four years," Bank of America Merrill Lynch auto analyst John Murphy said in his latest Car Wars report.
Between 2016 and 2019, Honda will replace its entire lineup, Murphy says. Well, 99 per cent of it. The average showroom age in a Honda/Acura store will go to 1.9 years – versus, say, 3.4 years at Fiat Chrysler. Honda is getting younger and fast; each year for the next four, 24 per cent of its lineup will be reinvented.
Murphy believes new models drive sales, profits and stock prices. Thus, four years into Hachigo's tenure, Honda should be all the way back.
At the other end are the South Koreans, Hyundai and Kia. Oh, 2016 and 2017 look okay – new Tucson and Sportage crossovers – but after that, the Hyundai and Kia product pipeline slows to a relative trickle. Worse, both brands will be long on cars such as the Kia Optima and Hyundai Elantra, short on popular crossovers and SUVs.
Fiat Chrysler, Ford and Toyota also look poised to grab more buyers. General Motors, Nissan and the Europeans as a group will tread water, says Murphy, restocking showrooms at an average pace, or just below. For new car shoppers, the next four years will be glorious. Car companies, Murphy says, will launch an average of 48 new models a year. That's 193 in all from 2016 to 2019, for a new model launch rate 26 per cent higher than the 1996-2015 period. Massive.
And about one-third of all the new models will be crossovers. Of course. This year, Canadians will buy more of them than any other sort of ride. We're infatuated.
Let's pause here to commend the innovative minds at Honda and Toyota who, for 1997, launched the CR-V and RAV4. These two seeded what has blossomed into the crossover craze. From 2016 to 2019, 66 of 193 new models will be crossovers, Murphy says. Heck, even Porsche joined in last year. The Macan has become so popular, the waiting list is reported to be six months.
If you are a shopper or plan to be, rejoice. The average showroom age across the industry will slip to 2.7 years, Murphy says. In the past, Detroit's car companies replaced lineups every seven to eight years, the competition every four to five. Now the average is less than three.
And Honda's showroom, with its two-year-old toddlers, is staggeringly young – young enough, perhaps, to allow the new president to forget another, much bigger number: 20 million recalled vehicles.
Like us on Facebook
Follow us on Instagram
Add us to your circles
Sign up for our weekly newsletter