A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web.
The Bank of International Settlements ranked Canada, along with China and Hong Kong, as the most likely country for a financial crisis in a report released this month. CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld, with a distinct undercurrent of annoyance, detailed the reasons the BIS is wrong,
"The [BIS] report itself has multiple warnings to treat its results with 'considerable caution.' That seems prudent, based on the BIS's own track record … Two of the current warning signals for Canada seem particularly likely to mislead. The first is a measure tracking the degree to which a country's ratio of non-financial credit to GDP is above its longer term trend. That is certainly true for Canada, but interest rates are also miles below their longer term levels … Moreover, as we always caution, it's not just how much credit has been issued, but to whom. The U.S. financial crisis was triggered by large debts owed by individual households that didn't have matching incomes. Mortgage arrears rates in Canada continue to dive."
"@SBarlow_ROB CIBC's Shenfeld throws some shade on BIS 'Canada most at risk of fin crisis' report" – (research excerpt) Twitter
Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin published the latest edition of 'Where to Invest Now.' The recommendations are to emphasize U.S. stocks with high levels of research and development, and companies with the strongest revenue growth.
"@SBarlow_ROB "GS: Co.s with highest investment in future growth " – (full table of stock ideas) Twitter
@SBarlow_ROB "GS: Companies with strongest sales growth" – (full table of stock ideas) Twitter
Two competing investment narratives alternate almost daily in energy markets, "oil lower on rising U.S. production" and "oil higher on strong global demand, OPEC production cuts." Today is another 'oil lower day,'
"Is $71 as good as it gets for oil bulls this year?" – Reuters
"Oil Slips as U.S. Shale Fears Untempered by Russian Reassurance" – Bloomberg
"A small group of oil traders could come out of hibernation to catch the rest of the market off-guard" – Business Insider
"Oil prices slip but Saudi-Iran tensions limit losses" – Reuters
"Shale? Here's the Other Wave Washing Into the Oil Market" – Business Week
Tweet of the Day: "@srussolillo "Bitcoin price weakness has similarities to the Nasdaq in 2000, just occurring at 15x the speed." via @MorganStanley" – Twitter
Diversion: "What Took Facebook So Long? Scholars have been sounding the alarm about data-harvesting firms for nearly a decade. The latest Cambridge Analytica scandal shows it may be too late to stop them." – The Atlantic