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How the market experts made out in predicting 2016 Add to ...

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At this time about a year ago, with the price of oil in a freefall, the state of the economy was troubled. As was the state of economic forecasting: Most of the predictions for 2015 had gone badly awry, and economists and market watchers were getting ready to yank the 2016 outlooks they’d published just weeks before.

Predictions for 2016: Mostly in the ballpark

ForecasterGDP growth (%)Inflation (%)Unemployment rate (%)10-year Treasury yield (%) Canadian dollar (U.S. cents)Oil (U.S. $)S&P/TSX composite
National Bank1.,000
Year-end estimates/actuals1.,328

Note: Forecasts for all indicators except S&P/TSX composite are the average for the entirety of 2016. Actual figures are full-year estimates from CIBC for GDP growth, inflation and the unemployment rate; actual YTD average figures for Treasury, Canadian dollar and oil are from Bloomberg. S&P/TSX close as of Dec. 23.

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