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Blocks of unrefined gold nuggets.Bloomberg

Investors have learned in the past decade that almost anything can happen in global markets, but a lot would have to change for the gold price to reach $4,000 (U.S.) an ounce.

Nonetheless, fund manager Diego Parrilla of Old Mutual Global Investors told Bloomberg he believes there's "a few thousand dollars of upside" in the gold price.

Mr. Parrilla was somewhat coy about his investment thesis for bullion, noting, "As some of the excesses in other asset classes get unwound, gold will perform very strongly. … [T]he perfect storm scenario will mean that gold will perform best when other classes are doing worst."

He also referred to "monetary policy without limits" and low interest rates, so we can assume that Mr. Parrilla believes the high prices for bonds are a primary "excess" that will be unwound in the form of much higher bond yields and interest rates.

Bullion bulls will list numerous reasons for their fandom, but I want to stick with market relationships that can be proven with data. Historically, the gold price has moved proportionally in the opposite direction of U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) bond yields and the U.S. trade-weighted dollar.

The first chart below compares the gold price to the yield of five-year U.S. Treasury in