A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates Wednesday, so asset markets have likely already priced for the move. Canadians should be watching for any surprise reaction in shorter-term domestic bond yields and, by extension, the loonie.
"For the First Time in Nine Months, the Market Expects Two Fed Hikes in 2018" – Boesler, Bloomberg
"Bond Traders Are on the Defensive as Fed Looms" – Businessweek
"Behind What Central Banks Will Do This Week" – El-Erian, Bloomberg View
"Here are the rules for our Fed Macro Live game" – FT Alphaville
OPEC officials are making extremely bullish comments about the short term future of the commodity price,
"'The fundamentals of the oil market have not been this strong in the past several years,' [OPEC's Mohammad Barkindo said] in the interview. 'Both the global economic rebound, as well as strong oil market fundamentals, for the first time in so many years are all pointing to the right direction.' ... The stockpile glut -- including crude as well as oil products -- has shrunk to 130 million barrels above the five-year average… The group last month estimated the overhang at about 154 million barrels."
"OPEC Says Oil Goal's Close as Stockpile Glut Shrinks Further" – Bloomberg
"Oil up on U.S. crude stocks draw, Forties outage supports" – Reuters
"Five main drivers of oil prices in the coming year" – Financial Times
I spent the last 10 days about 3000 kilometers south of Toronto and even there, the only finance talk among the locals was about bitcoin. Since the mania has clearly gone global, I collected a few links to information I found useful on the topic in recent days,
"Statement on Cryptocurrencies and Initial Coin Offerings" – Securities and Exchange Commission described what cryptocurrencies are (and aren't).
"Bitcoin hits another record high in march towards $20,000" – Reuters
"Busting the myth that bitcoin is actually an efficient payment mechanism" – FT Alphaville
"Bitcoin Futures May Offer No Way Out" – Gadfly
"Bitcoin Is Hot, But Good Luck Using It" – Gadfly
One of Richard Bernstein's most important rules of investing is that "returns are best where capital is scarce." He explained this metaphorically in a recent report as "In other words, it is more profitable to be the one banker in a town of 1,000 borrowers than it is to be one of 1,000 bankers in a town of one borrower. Simple supply and demand for capital tends to set prospective investment returns."
Mr. Bernstein's portfolios are now overweight materials and precious metals, two areas where he thinks investment is relatively low.
"Some thoughts on 2018" – Bernstein, RB Advisors
"Goldman Sachs is doubling down on its bullish commodity call" – Report on Business
"Want to Make Money in Industrial Metals Next Year? Ask China How" – Bloomberg
Tweet of the Day: "@EdLudlow New #Oil Sheriff in town? U.S. Output set to exceed #SaudiArabia in 2018 (according to EIA forecast) " – (chart) Twitter
Diversion: "The Best Action Movies of 2017" – The Ringer