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Rebounds and market breadth are pointing to good times ahead

For anyone who has had enough with U.S.-economy this and subprime meltdown that, technical analysts can provide a nifty salve to the frayed nerves of macro-induced stock market turbulence. Ray Hanson, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, takes a look in a research note today at major reversals in stock market activity, with particular focus on rebounds and the trading volumes and market breadth that accompany them. The S&P/TSX composite index swooned 17 per cent to January 21, but has since bounced back 6 per cent. More importantly, some days (such as last Wednesday) have seen big sell-offs in the morning, followed by impressive rebounds in the afternoon. Mr. Hanson believes this could signal that the index is beginning to form a bottom at what he calls "very oversold levels" and could emit a buy signal next Friday. "Once this signal is triggered, we expect a positive time window of 3 to 4 months to play out," he said in his research note. "If the indices hold hear last week's lows at TSX 12011, S&P 1270 and NASD 2202, we believe there is a good chance they will try to claw their way back toward the cycle highs over the next 4 to 5 quarters, just as they did following the crash of 1987." The S&P/TSX composite index is currently sitting well above its low, at 12,919 in late morning trading.

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