A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web
Oil markets news top financial news with, as usual, credible but conflicting reports. The International Energy Agency detailed their forecast of balanced (in terms of global supply and demand) crude markets for 2018, while Goldman Sachs predicted that this is as good as it's going to get for fundamentals,
"Global oil market seen balanced in 2018, even with rising output: IEA" – Reuters
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs argues that the third quarter of 2017 is "as good as it gets" for oil inventory draws,
"Our updated global supply-demand balance indeed shows peak stock draws in 3Q17, with their greater magnitude offset by a less constructive 4Q17 than previously expected. Our modest 2018 global surplus remains unchanged While 3Q17 stock draws will likely be as good as it gets, we believe forward fundamentals still support our year-end and 2018 Brent forecasts of $58/bbl. Key to this spot forecast is our view that OPEC, inventories and financial flows will keep the forward curve in backwardation, with producers budgeting on a 10% lower price."
"@SBarlow_ROB GS: Q3 'as good as it gets' for crude fundamentals" – (research excerpt) Twitter
"@chigrl $GS : "3Q oil fundamentals likely to be as good as it gets" #oott #oil " – (research excerpt, charts) Twitter
"Oil Market Report" – (summary) International Energy Agency
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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is voicing optimism regarding NAFTA talks, but sustained rumours of U.S. "poison pills" have the PM also warning that "we have to be ready for everything,"
"On NAFTA negotiations, Trudeau says Canada has to be 'ready for anything'" – CBC
"@Reuters WATCH: Trump signals he could walk away from NAFTA if talks fail reut.rs/2yF5N7S via @ReutersTV " – Reuters
"Trump's NAFTA agenda has 'poison pill proposals,' says U.S. Chamber of Commerce" – CNN
"Trudeau heads to Mexico in midst of tensions over NAFTA" – BNN
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General Motors executives provided a blunt reminder of the wage-limiting effects of globalization,
"Unifor leader Jerry Dias told Reuters on Wednesday that GM officials said they would ramp up production of the vehicle at two plants in Mexico that build the Equinox and a similar model, the GMC Terrain if the walkout [at the Ingersoll, Ontario facility] is not called off. "GM just told us today that they are going to ramp up production in Mexico," Unifor President Jerry Dias said by phone from Washington. "They have declared war on Canada."
"GM warns Unifor it's looking elsewhere for vehicle production amid strike" – Report on Business
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Bloomberg highlights distinct signs of capitulation by market bears in what is not a great sign for future U.S. market performance. At some point, there will be no one else to buy,
"With the momentum driving U.S. stocks to one record after another showing few signs of breaking, even a group of money managers ranked as the most skeptical are loading up on equities. That's according to a weekly survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers, which found them to be more than 90 percent long the market. They typically have a net short position averaging 93 percent, according to data going back to 2006."
"Bears Become Bulls in Unbroken U.S. Stock Market Rally" – Bloomberg
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Tweet of the day: "@gadfly Why you can't afford a house, in 9 charts bloom.bg/2guUFQo ' – Twitter
Diversion: "Anthony Bourdain's Upcoming Documentary Takes An Unflinching Look At The Global Food Waste Epidemic" – Fast Company
Scott Barlow