Traders work the floor of the exchange in Frankurt. The European economy looks to be on the upswing despite lingering Brexit fears, slow growth in countries such as Italy and the coming German election.Reuters
This has not been a good year for Canadian investors. In fact, to put it bluntly, it's been a stinker.
Just take a look at the year-to-date performances of the world's major stock markets. Only one is in the red as of Wednesday – ours, the S&P/TSX composite index, with a year-to-date loss of 0.5 per cent. Everyone else is in profit territory, although some gains are pretty meagre – Australia is only ahead by 1.7 per cent. The big winners so far this year are Hong Kong (up 26.2 per cent), India (19.4 per cent) and Nasdaq (17.7 per cent).
The S&P/TSX has been dragged down by weakness in the energy sector, which accounts for 20.4 per cent of the main index. It's off 19.6 per cent for the year, despite a recent rally. Most other sectors are in the black or just below break-even, but that hasn't been enough to offset the oil and gas drag.
Surprisingly, bonds have fared better than stocks this year, despite the Bank of Canada's recent rate hike. The FTSE TMX universe bond index is ahead 1.21 per cent year-to-date owing to a modest recovery last week after slumping in July on weakness in federal government issues. Corporate bonds have done even better. The all corporate bond index is ahead by 2.16 per cent for the year.
So where should we look for stock gains? One possibility is to shift more assets to New York, where U.S. stocks are surging. Led by Nasdaq, all the major indexes there have been strong, with the Dow up 11.6 per cent and the S&P 500 ahead by 10.5 per cent for the year. There's just one problem: the Canadian dollar, which has been unexpectedly strong this year.
The loonie started 2017 at 74.43 cents (U.S.), according to the Bank of Canada. It closed on Wednesday at 78.71 cents. That is a gain of 5.8 per cent so far this year, which wipes out a big chunk of any profit earned on the Dow or the S&P 500 once the money is converted back to Canadian dollars.
Emerging markets are the best bet with the MSCI emerging markets index ahead by 25 per cent so far in 2017. But some investors are uncomfortable with the volatility. There is also some nervousness about investing heavily in Nasdaq at this point after the strong run in the tech sector.
European stocks offer a less volatile option. The European economy finally seems to have emerging from the doldrums, despite the continuing concerns about Brexit, slow growth in key countries like Italy and the coming German election. The Euro STOXX 50 index, which includes the top blue-chip stocks from the euro zone, started the year at 3,309 and is now at 3,467, for a gain of almost 5 per cent. Plus, the loonie has lost value against the euro this year, dropping from €0.7157 ($1.07) at the beginning of January to €0.6697 as of Wednesday. If you hold euro zone stocks, that is a currency gain on your investment of approximately another 6 per cent.
One way to invest in this index is through the new Horizons Euro STOXX 50 Index ETF (HXX), which was launched last December. It has a very low management expense ratio of 0.19 per cent and is off to a strong start, with a year-to-date gain of 14 per cent. This is still a very small fund (about $75-million in assets) and is thinly traded, with daily volume often less than 5,000 units. So if you plan to take a position, enter a limit order and be patient.
This ETF is suitable for investors looking for more exposure to high-quality European companies. Note that this fund is not appropriate for those who need regular cash flow, as there have been no distributions to date. Ask your financial adviser if it is suitable for your account.
Gordon Pape is Editor and Publisher of the Internet Wealth Builder and Income Investor newsletters. For more information and details on how to subscribe, go to www.buildingwealth.ca.
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Gordon Pape