The solar power revolution is way over-hyped

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A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web.

There is a distinct danger for investors reading coverage of the oil industry. Writers are prone to contrarianism, following a series of bullish stories with the exact reverse. We appear to be in one of those periods as, after a spate of late December reports touting a bright outlook for crude prices, today there's pessimism,

" 'Brent and West Texas Intermediate oil prices will probably oscillate between $40 (U.S.) and $60 a barrel this year, penned in by rising U.S. shale production, declining but still hearty global supplies and eroding compliance with OPEC-led output cuts,' the ratings agency said in a report Tuesday. Abundant supplies of natural gas will also constrain prices, Moody's said."

"For Oil Investors, This May Be as Good as It Gets for Bumpy 2018" – Bloomberg

"Oil hits new two-and-a-half year highs as higher output looms" – Reuters

"Iran May Not Be Oil's Biggest Wild Card in 2018" – Business Week

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The Financial Times' Robin Wiggleworth warns that global monetary policy, where all major central banks are withdrawing stimulus, is an underrated risk to equity investors,

"While markets thus far appear sanguine about the prospects, investors are eyeing the possible effects with rising trepidation. While it has not done it single-handedly, central bank support has been instrumental in levitating markets higher since the financial crisis. 'The coming changes in global monetary policy is nowhere near priced in and is actually grossly underestimated,' says Robert Michele, chief investment officer of JPMorgan Asset Management."

"Draining of QE punchbowl sobers up bond bulls" – Financial Times

"Negative Bond Yields Are the Betamax of European Markets" – Gadfly

"China's Longest Bond Rout Has Further to Go" – Bloomberg

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Macleans magazine discusses the distinct possibility that price fixing is a feature of the Canadian economy,

"Most price-fixing cases do not generate much media attention. However, recent news that major Canadian grocery chains are being investigated after allegations of fixing bread prices – after an admission by Loblaw – seems to have struck a nerve. Is price fixing a larger problem in Canada than we realize? What is the overall cost to consumers?

The reality is this: while improvements are possible, Canada's approach to price fixing works well – and the country actually remains an exemplar to the rest of the world in this area."

"Is price fixing a major problem in Canada?" – Macleans

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George Mason Economics professor and all-around polymath Tyler Cowen believes the solar power revolution is significantly over-hyped,

"Solar energy could be a boon to mankind and the environment, but it's going to need a lot more support and entrepreneurial and policy dynamism… The first disquieting sign is that solar companies are spending only about 1 per cent of their revenue on research and development, well below average for a potentially major industry. You might think that's because things are going so great, but some major solar users may have already maxed out their technology."

"Solar's Bright Future Is Further Away Than It Seems" – Cowen, BloombergView

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Tweet of the Day: "@SBarlow_ROB The U.S. Just Burned the Most Natural Gas Ever bloomberg.com/news/articles/… #market #feedly" – Twitter

Diversion: Prominent U.S. CEOs choose their books of the year for 2017, "The Best Books of 2017" – Bloomberg