A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web
The bitcoin price was falling faster than the finance media could keep up with overnight, dropping more than 20 per cent to below $13,000. To the extent speculators discover that crytocurrencies are a bit of a Hotel California as an asset class – you can check in any time you like, but taking profits is a different matter entirely – the selling could intensify.
There are reasons, however, to believe this isn't the end for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. For one, the price weakness seems focused on bitcoin alone and other currencies are relatively stable. For another, big sell-offs in percentage terms have been apparent for bitcoin every quarter, it's just that the dollar amounts are larger now.
"Bitcoin Is So 2017 as Ripple Soars at Year End: Chart" – Bloomberg
"Bitcoin plunges below $13,000, heads for worst week since 2013" – Reuters
"Bitcoin Tumbles Through $13,0 00 as `Sharks Start to Circle'" – Bloomberg
"@charliebilello Bitcoin has declined 34% over the past 4 days, its 5th 30+% correction of the year. $BTC.X" – (table) Twitter
"@mark_dow Joking aside, from a pattern perspective this is the area where you might expect $BTC $XBT to bounce. The strength of any such bounce--or lack thereof--typically reveals a lot" – (chart) Twitter
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RBC wrote that affordability levels in the Canadian housing market have fallen to levels not seen since 1990, right before a recession,
"Rising home ownership costs in Vancouver, Toronto and Victoria pushed overall housing affordability in Canada to its worst level since the end of 1990 in the third quarter of 2017, according to the latest Housing Trends and Affordability Report issued today by RBC Economics Research… RBC's aggregate measure for affordability in Canada rose for the ninth consecutive quarter to stand at 48.7 per cent in the third quarter. Housing affordability is calculated as the share of household income that would be required to carry the costs of owning a home at market price."
"Buying a home in Canada is less affordable than any time since 1990: RBC Economics" – REIT Report
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Citi quantitative strategists note that economists' forecasts for 2018 global growth are all grouped together in optimistic territory, setting the stage for disappointment,
"We note that uncertainty about 2018 growth is unusually low … With the exception of the UK, the 2018 forecast volatilities are all at or close to historical lows. China stands out has having particularly low growth uncertainty among the 64 contributors who have submitted expectations for 2018… Canada stands out as having relatively low growth uncertainty coupled with a strongly positive skew."
"@SBarlow_ROB Citi: uncertainty about '18 growth is unusually low" – (research excerpt, chart) Twitter
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Tweet of the Day: "@chigrl $GS Bear Market Risk Indicator" – (chart) Twitter
Diversion: "Bloomberg's 100 Best Photos of 2017" – Bloomberg
Scott Barlow