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Top Links: 'Crude to $30 or lower with no OPEC deal’

A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading this morning on the Web

Enough has been written about the U.S. election without me chiming in again, but I'll leave some practical and interesting links below for those following today's huge vote,

"@tracyalloway Cut. Paste. Keep. Election Day edition. From Danske Bank (h/t @MOstwald1)" - Twitter
"Your Hour-by-Hour Guide to Following Obsessively on Election Day" - Twitter
"Further reading, epic special edition for US Election Day (and beyond) - FT Alphaville
"Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation - Clinton has 90 percent chance of winning" - Reuters
"@SBarlow_ROB BMO : "The implied probability of gridlock is 71%" - (Research excerpt) Twitter

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WTI crude prices are flat Tuesday morning as markets digest new supply, demand and price forecasts from OPEC and the International Energy Agency. OPEC has raised crude demand forecasts but for reasons investors in the sector won't like - continued low prices,

"Demand will reach 95.3 million barrels a day in 2017, according to the producer group's annual World Oil Outlook report released Tuesday. That's an increase of 300,000 barrels a day from last year's forecast. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also raised its outlook for oil use in 2018, 2019 and 2020, when it sees demand reaching 98.3 million barrels a day, or 900,000 more than the group projected in its previous annual outlook … OPEC cut its estimates for crude prices by $20 a barrel for each year from 2016 to 2020, compared with its previous outlook. The group assumes crude will average $40 a barrel in 2016, and it raised its projected price by $5 a barrel in each of the following years through 2020. Brent has averaged about $44 a barrel so far this year."

"OPEC Raises Oil-Demand Forecast on Outlook for Cheaper Crude" - Bloomberg
"$30 Oil Or Worse If OPEC Fails" - Oil Price


Echoing previous comments from Royal Dutch Shell, OPEC also noted the possibility that environmental regulation could see a permanent peak in global crude demand as early as 2029. The cartel estimates that oil demand will continue to rise until at least 2040 as its base case, but,

"in its "Scenario B" — which envisages countries meeting their [environmental] targets on time, including those from poorer nations that are conditional on financial support — oil demand peaks in 2029 at 100.9m barrels a day and then declines to 98.3m b/d by 2040, more than 10 per cent below the level in their reference case."

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"Opec: oil demand could peak in just over a decade" - Financial Times


Ontario regulators have begun a crackdown on investments called "syndicated mortgages" that encourage Canadians to invest in pools of real estate instead of their RRSPs,

"The Financial Services Commission of Ontario (FSCO), which regulates insurance and mortgage brokers in the province, recently issued a "cease and desist" order against Toronto's Tier 1 Transaction and Advisory Services, whose website implores investors to "invest like a bank" by putting their RRSP or TFSA money into "high-demand real-estate development projects not typically available to individual investors." The order also names Tier 1's related businesses, as well as Bhaktraj Singh, the company's chief executive."

"Regulators put syndicated mortgages in their crosshairs" - Maclean's


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Tweet of the Day: This is absolutely remarkable, "Possibly the greatest scene in documentary history. Incredible. #PlanetEarth2" - Twitter

Diversion: How strong are the institutions of liberal society?" - Free Exchange, The Economist

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