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Top Links: Reports of imminent oil industry death have been exaggerated

A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading this morning on the Web

This is the business section and politics only matters to the extent it affects the economy or markets. The U.S. election definitely qualifies as it resulted in major market volatility. Investors repositioned portfolios for "Trumpflation" – selling bonds and buying industrial metals, for example – and popular dividend sectors got hit hard.

I'm much more concerned about potential administrative incompetence this morning than future legislation. The Atlantic's James Fallows, who's covered every U.S. election since before colour television, responded in horror to reports that Mr. Trump's transition team is flailing badly, tweeting "When people who know this world talk about unbelievable, clownish ignorance and incompetence, this is the sort of thing they have in mind."

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If that weren't enough to worry about, experts that have served in previous administrations are warning others to stay away. The president-elect is struggling to build a support team, so enacting new legislation seems a low probability event at the moment. There are, to state it mildly, other things to worry about.

"@JamesFallows 5 When people who know this world talk about unbelievable, clownish ignorance and incompetence, this is the sort of thing they have in mind" – Twitter
"I told conservatives to work for Trump. One talk with his team changed my mind" – Washington Post
"@SBarlow_ROB Why would I position for DJT policy when they're completing botching the transition ?" – (includes Deutsche Bank research excerpt) Twitter


In far more positive investor news, the International Energy Agency has released a report concluding that global oil demand is set to grow steadily until at least 2040,

"'The difficulty of finding alternatives to oil in road freight, aviation and petrochemicals means that, up to 2040, the growth in these three sectors alone is greater than the growth in global oil demand,' the IEA said in its annual World Energy Outlook."

A last ditch effort by OPEC to arrange a production freeze also boosted crude prices Tuesday,

"'We estimate the possibility of an actual OPEC production cut as 50-50,' said Hans Van Cleef, energy economist at ABN Amro Bank NV. 'Although reaching a successful deal is not impossible, higher production levels do not facilitate the upcoming negotiations.'"

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"Oil demand won't peak before 2040, despite Paris deal: IEA" – Reuters
"Oil Slips as Clock Ticks on OPEC Deal Amid Rising U.S. Supply" – Bloomberg


Bond are falling and yields are rising again today, but the Federal Reserve believes low rates will be an economic theme for many years to come,

"The era of low global interest rates is not expected to come to an abrupt end, Federal Reserve policy maker James Bullard said on Wednesday, although a rise in U.S. productivity growth would normally require a rise in its rates.

"'We have a low interest rate regime and it is really not expected to turn around and mean revert,' Bullard said a UBS banking conference."

This will reassure domestic dividend investors to some extent.

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"Fed's Bullard says low interest era not expected to end" – Reuters
"Government Bonds Fall Worldwide on Trump-Fed Nexus; Oil Declines" – Bloomberg
"@BisphamGreen "this is an important chart ... bond sell off creates expectations of more bond sell off" – Twitter


Tweet of the Day: "@BuzzFeedCanada Some people want California to join Canada and honestly that sounds just great… " – Twitter

Diversion: "Check Out These Ridiculous Presidential Plane And Limo Designs Fit For President-Elect Trump" – Jalopnik

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