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A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, on April 29, 2013.Lucy Nicholson/Reuters

A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading this morning on the Web

The bears, even Goldman "$20 per barrel" Sachs are capitulating in the oil patch. The International Energy Agency (IEA) published a report Friday morning predicting that the bottom is in for the commodity price,

"Production outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will decline by 750,000 barrels a day this year, or 150,000 barrels a day more than estimated last month, the agency said.

"There are signs that prices might have bottomed out," the Paris-based adviser to 29 countries said in its monthly market report on Friday. "For prices there may be light at the end of what has been a long, dark tunnel" as market forces are "working their magic and higher-cost producers are cutting output.""

"IEA Says Oil Price May Have Bottomed as High-Cost Producers Cut" – Bloomberg
Goldman Sees `Green Shoots' in Crude as Storage Risks Recede – Bloomberg
"IEA says oil may have bottomed as non-OPEC producers cut output" – Reuters
"IEA Sees Signs Oil Prices Might Have Bottomed Out" – Wall Street Journal
The full IEA report is HERE

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U.S.-based insurance and pension expert David Merkel published a column warning that many Americans who think they will have high pension incomes in retirement probably won't,

"From my start in investment writing over 20 years ago, I predicted that more corporate pensions would get frozen, terminated, and replaced with defined contribution plans. Plans assumed too much in the way of investment earnings. Sponsors contributed too little, encouraged by the IRS, that wanted more tax revenue, and thus limited the amount sponsors could contribute… many are worried about retirement. That is a rational fear. I have older friends who have thought ahead, and retrained for lower-impact occupations. If you don't have assets, you will probably end up working. Best to think about that sooner, rather than later."

The return assumptions for pension portfolios remains far too high, on both sides of the border, to meet future liabilities if bond yields and economic growth remain near current levels.

"Picturing Pensions" – Merkel, The Aleph Blog

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Canadians own more U.S. assets than Americans own our assets for the first time in history,

"The stock of U.S. assets held by Canadians in the fourth quarter of 2015 -- everything from corporate acquisitions to portfolio investments -- exceeded assets held by Americans in Canada for the first time since at least 1990, according to quarterly data published Thursday by Statistics Canada.

"Easy credit, strong balance sheets, and lack of investing opportunities at home have been the main factors driving Canadian money managers and companies on a shopping spree south of the border. The value of those investments has jumped over the last couple of years as the U.S. dollar has strengthened. U.S. investors, meanwhile, haven't been reciprocating."

Much of the trend was caused by a rise in the Canadian dollar value of U.S. assets but still, the outward flow of Canadian wealth is unhelpful for the domestic economy.

" Buying America: Canada Becomes a U.S. Creditor for First Time" – Bloomberg

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CBC News listed the bilateral agreements stemming from the insanely over-covered meeting between prime minister Trudeau and U.S. president Obama. Climate change and Arctic security were among the issues discussed.

"12 things Trudeau and Obama agreed on" – CBC News
"Trudeau, Obama say softwood lumber issue will be resolved soon" – Report on Business

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Tweet of the Day: "@Vconomics BofA: Rolling 10-year returns for commodities is at the lowest levels since the Great Depression. pic.twitter.com/1hX1qy0O7x " – Twitter

Diversion: "This Hilarious Story Lampooning Ludicrous Tech Company Decor Is Simply Perfect" – Gizmodo

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