The S&P/TSX Composite jumped 2.0 per cent for the week ending with Thursday's close. The entire benchmark is now very close to overbought, technically vulnerable levels, according to my favoured short term technical indicator, Relative Strength Index (RSI). The TSX Composite's RSI reading of 67.0 is only a touch below the overbought, sell signal of 70.
In terms of individual names, there are only two benchmark constituent stocks, Performance Sports Group Ltd. and Empire Company Ltd., that are in officially oversold territory with RSI readings below 30. But, because neither of the stock prices is trading above their respective 200-day moving averages, I won't be using wither for the focus stock this week. As noted previously, technical buy signals are not as effective for stocks trading in a down trend below the 200-day.
The focus chart this week is Quebecor Inc. class B. It is not officially in oversold territory according to RSI, but it's close, and the stock price is also above its 200-day moving average.
RSI has a solid two-year track record in uncovering buying opportunities on Quebecor. An RSI buy signal in February 2014 was particularly lucrative as the stock rallied 44 per cent in the next 11 months. The May 2015 buy signal was not nearly as successful. It was followed by a brief, small rally before the price headed significantly lower.
More recently, a buy signal in August 2015 also worked well. The stock quickly jumped 32 per cent in the following three months.
The usual caveats apply. Technical analysis tools like RSI have proven useful to investors over time, but must always be accompanied by fundamental analysis before any market transactions occur.
There are 16 TSX Composite stocks on the overbought, technically vulnerable list. Takeover target Rona Inc. tops the table again as the most overbought stock. Other prominent members of the overbought club this week include SNC-Lavalin Group Inc., Riocan REIT, Paramount Resources Ltd. and Bank of Nova Scotia.
Follow Scott Barlow on Twitter @SBarlow_ROB.
