A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web
A Goldman Sachs research report called "Top of mind: 2017 update, and a peek at 2018" includes a prediction that Canada's trade relationship is about to change dramatically. In a segment called "what to expect," the analysts write,
"More likely than not, a US announcement of its intention to withdraw from NAFTA, given the hard line US negotiators have taken so far. This would not guarantee withdrawal; similar to the administration's strategy on other issues, it could be an attempt to disrupt the status quo with delayed implementation and an expectation that a new arrangement might be negotiated in the interim."
"@SBarlow_ROB GS expects U.S. withdrawal from NAFTA in 2018" – (research excerpt) Twitter
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The Atlantic's Derek Thompson has been the best source of analysis on the evolution of cable television and streaming in my opinion. In the wake of Disney's announced takeover of Fox assets, Mr. Thompson warns that we should all be afraid of the Disney Death Star,
"These additions would enrich an overflowing treasury at Disney, whose assets includes Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar, ABC, ESPN, the world's most popular amusement parks, and, of course, its classic animated-film division. When Mufasa tells Simba in The Lion King that "everything the light touches is our kingdom," it isn't just memorable screenwriting. It is corporate guidance."
The report features a still-stunning chart showing that younger age groups have more or less deserted regular TV programming.
"Everybody Should Be Very Afraid of the Disney Death Star" – Thompson, The Atlantic
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Sell side oil analysts aren't much help to investors where oil price predictions are concerned – the forecasts are all over the map,
"Among the most bullish is Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which boosted its outlook for Brent crude by almost 7 percent to $62 a barrel, citing stronger-than-expected commitment from OPEC and partners. That compares with an average price of about $54 a barrel this year …
On the other end of the spectrum is Citigroup Inc., which says there's a risk the current bullish supply and demand dynamic will run out of steam, and an upsurge in U.S. shale production could spook the market."
"Bullish or Bearish for Oil Next Year? Here's What Big Banks Say" – Bloomberg
"Oil gains as Forties outage, Nigeria strike threaten supply" – Reuters
"Five Charts on How 2018 Will Make or Break OPEC" – Gadfly
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A terrific report shows how to use famed mathematician Benoit Madelbrot's work on complexity and randomness for investing,
"'Human nature yearns to see order and hierarchy in the world. It will invent it where it cannot find it.' 'The brain highlights what it imagines as patterns; it disregards contradictory information. 'So limited is our knowledge that we resort, not to science, but to shamans.'"
"Benoit Mandelbrot's Ideas about Investing and Markets" – 25iq
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Tweet of the Day: "@morganhousel The most underrated investing skills are controlling your emotions and having your career coincide with a 30 year decline in interest rates." – Twitter
Diversion: "Why Didn't You Watch the Best Show Ever Made About Silicon Valley?" – Gizmodo
Scott Barlow