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Waiting for a Shaw takeover Add to ...

Tuning into TD Newcrest analyst Vince Valentini on Monday and you get the impression there's almost no risk in back Shaw Communications Inc. Writing about why he likes Shaw and, there are plenty of fundamental reasons, Mr. Valentini also sees prospects for foreign ownership rules in the sector being relaxed during the next 12-to-18 months, "leading to the potential for a takeover at up to $20 more than the current price." The shares have gained 1.7 per cent, changing hands at $45.01. TD's $52 target price on Shaw is based a 30 per cent probability of a takeover at $64.50, and 70 per cent on the fundamental value of $47, which is based on 10 times 2008 estimated EBITDA. In the meantime, he likes the "risk versus reward dynamic" in Shaw, with limited downside risk for the shares because of strong momentum in the cable TV business, more chances of upside surprises to guidance and the unlikely prospect that Shaw will make any "destructive" investments or acquisitions.

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