Skip to main content
The Globe and Mail
Support Quality Journalism
The Globe and Mail
First Access to Latest
Investment News
Collection of curated
e-books and guides
Inform your decisions via
Globe Investor Tools
Just$1.99
per week
for first 24 weeks

Enjoy unlimited digital access
Enjoy Unlimited Digital Access
Get full access to globeandmail.com
Just $1.99 per week for the first 24 weeks
Just $1.99 per week for the first 24 weeks
var select={root:".js-sub-pencil",control:".js-sub-pencil-control",open:"o-sub-pencil--open",closed:"o-sub-pencil--closed"},dom={},allowExpand=!0;function pencilInit(o){var e=arguments.length>1&&void 0!==arguments[1]&&arguments[1];select.root=o,dom.root=document.querySelector(select.root),dom.root&&(dom.control=document.querySelector(select.control),dom.control.addEventListener("click",onToggleClicked),setPanelState(e),window.addEventListener("scroll",onWindowScroll),dom.root.removeAttribute("hidden"))}function isPanelOpen(){return dom.root.classList.contains(select.open)}function setPanelState(o){dom.root.classList[o?"add":"remove"](select.open),dom.root.classList[o?"remove":"add"](select.closed),dom.control.setAttribute("aria-expanded",o)}function onToggleClicked(){var l=!isPanelOpen();setPanelState(l)}function onWindowScroll(){window.requestAnimationFrame(function() {var l=isPanelOpen(),n=0===(document.body.scrollTop||document.documentElement.scrollTop);n||l||!allowExpand?n&&l&&(allowExpand=!0,setPanelState(!1)):(allowExpand=!1,setPanelState(!0))});}pencilInit(".js-sub-pencil",!1); // via darwin-bg var slideIndex = 0; carousel(); function carousel() { var i; var x = document.getElementsByClassName("subs_valueprop"); for (i = 0; i < x.length; i++) { x[i].style.display = "none"; } slideIndex++; if (slideIndex> x.length) { slideIndex = 1; } x[slideIndex - 1].style.display = "block"; setTimeout(carousel, 2500); }

A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

It's important to remember that economists and strategists got it wrong in 2017 while the forecasts for the coming year are being published. TC Global Macro has us covered with a review,

"In 2017, for the first time in years, forecasters underestimated global real GDP growth. Average real GDP growth for the twelve countries we monitor is now expected to be 3.6% compared with a consensus forecast of 3.3% .. Inflation forecasts for 2017 were, once again, too high … for the first time in many years, economists' forecasts of central bank policy rates were too low."

Story continues below advertisement

"Biggest Global Macro Misses of 2017" – Ted Carmichael Global Macro

"Fed's Dots Have Lost the Plot as Economists Puzzle Over Outlook" – Bloomberg

"Central banks, trade and bubbles threaten the 2018 status quo" – Reuters

=====

Can bitcoin be valued like a currency? Morgan Stanley says no,

"Can Bitcoin be valued like a currency? No. There is no interest rate associated with Bitcoin. Like digital gold? Maybe. Does not have any intrinsic use like gold has in electronics or jewelry. But investors appear to be ascribing some value to it… If nobody accepts the technology for payment then the value would be 0."

"@SBarlow_ROB MS: "Can Bitcoin be valued like a currency? No. " (slide presentation excerpt) Twitter

Story continues below advertisement

"South Korean bitcoin exchange to file for bankruptcy after hacking" – Report on Business

"Why you can't cash out pt 1: Why Bitcoin's "price" is largely fictional" – David Gerard

"Canada firm plans $200 million coin/share offering for oil and gas" – Reuters

=====

I didn't think U.S. congress was going to pass that hot mess of a tax bill, but it looks like I was wrong. Comments from left-leaning Paul Krugman and Vox are below, but even rightist economists are wondering why stimulus is happening despite full employment and why corporations are getting the bulk of the tax breaks when they've already been main beneficiaries of Fed monetary policy,

"@nytopinion The Republican tax plan is still going to explode the national debt, so why is Senator Bob Corker now supporting it. nyti.ms/2kgs1UX by @paulkrugman wonders, too." – Twitter

Story continues below advertisement

"Historians on the tax fight: "This was manufactured urgency"" – Vox

"@SBarlow_ROB MS: "our original call for a market top the day the tax bill is signed by President Trump still holds" – (research excerpt) Twitter

=====

U.S. corporate bonds are the asset class to watch in 2018, in my opinion. They are the most exposed to rising interest rates, and are trading at extremely expensive levels relative to government bonds. Cheap money has been a big driver of profit growth on both sides of the border and to a significant degree (for just one example), the U.S. shale boom is the result of the low costs of borrowing to expand production,

"Junk ETF Posts Biggest Weekly Outflow in Seven Months: Chart" – Bloomberg

=====

Story continues below advertisement

Tweet of the day: "@gadfly Peak oil-supply fears have faded and peak demand has entered the conversation bloom.bg/2kixqep " – Twitter

Diversion: "A Genetic Map Of The World" – Gene Expression

Report an error Editorial code of conduct
Tickers mentioned in this story
Due to technical reasons, we have temporarily removed commenting from our articles. We hope to have this fixed soon. Thank you for your patience. If you are looking to give feedback on our new site, please send it along to feedback@globeandmail.com. If you want to write a letter to the editor, please forward to letters@globeandmail.com.

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff. Non-subscribers can read and sort comments but will not be able to engage with them in any way. Click here to subscribe.

If you would like to write a letter to the editor, please forward it to letters@globeandmail.com. Readers can also interact with The Globe on Facebook and Twitter .

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff. Non-subscribers can read and sort comments but will not be able to engage with them in any way. Click here to subscribe.

If you would like to write a letter to the editor, please forward it to letters@globeandmail.com. Readers can also interact with The Globe on Facebook and Twitter .

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff.

We aim to create a safe and valuable space for discussion and debate. That means:

  • Treat others as you wish to be treated
  • Criticize ideas, not people
  • Stay on topic
  • Avoid the use of toxic and offensive language
  • Flag bad behaviour

Comments that violate our community guidelines will be removed.

Read our community guidelines here

Discussion loading ...

To view this site properly, enable cookies in your browser. Read our privacy policy to learn more.
How to enable cookies