BRENDAN MCDERMID
Quantitative easing - the government buying securities to support the economy - looks more certain by the day. Stocks may rally if so-called QE comes to pass. Investors ought to consider purchasing riskier stocks because they typically would rise more than the broader market. Here are 10 candidates predicted by analysts to double or triple in the next 12 months. They're ordered by their projected return, from big to biggest.
10. Gannett Inc. publishes newspapers, including USA Today, operates broadcasting stations and manages web sites. Second-quarter profit nearly tripled to $195-million, or 73 cents a share, as revenue declined 1.6 per cent to $1.4-billion. The operating margin rose from 15 per cent to 20 per cent. Gannett's stock trades at a trailing earnings multiple of 6, a forward earnings multiple of 5.4, a book value multiple of 1.6 and a cash flow multiple of 3.3 - 74 per cent, 82 per cent, 58 per cent and 80 per cent discounts to media peer averages. Around 75 per cent of analysts rate the stock "buy" and 25 per cent rank it "hold."
Bullish Scenario: Noble Financial predicts that Gannett's stock will double to $27.
9. Micron Technology Inc. makes semiconductors. Micron swung to a fiscal fourth-quarter profit of $342-million, or 32 cents a share, as revenue surged 91 per cent to $2.5-billion. The operating margin turned positive. Micron's stock sells for a trailing earnings multiple of 3.8, a forward earnings multiple of 6, a book value multiple of 0.9, a sales multiple of 0.8 and a cash flow multiple of 2.3 - 82 per cent, 54 per cent, 84 per cent, 75 per cent and 84 per cent discounts to semiconductor industry averages. Of analysts following Micron, 14 rate its stock "buy", nine rate it "hold" and just one ranks it "sell."
Bullish Scenario: Raymond James Financial RJF-N forecasts that Micron's stock will rise 138 per cent to $18.
8. Entegris sells integrity-management products to semiconductor, fuel-cell and life-sciences companies. It swung to a second-quarter profit of $18-million, or 14 cents a share, from a year-earlier loss. Revenue more than doubled. The operating margin climbed from the negatives to positive 16 per cent. The stock trades at a forward earnings multiple of 6.7, a book value multiple of 1.6 and a cash flow multiple of 9.5 - 49 per cent, 70 per cent and 36 per cent discounts to industry averages. Five analysts advise purchasing Entegris shares, two recommend holding and one says to sell.
Bullish Scenario: Craig-Hallum Capital values the stock at $10, suggesting a return of 114 per cent.
7. Orbital Sciences Corp. develops rockets and space systems for commercial and military customers. Second-quarter profit contracted 27 per cent to $6.4-million, or 11 cents a share, as revenue expanded 25 per cent to $338-million. The operating margin narrowed from 4.8 per cent to 4.1 per cent. Orbital's stock sells for a forward earnings multiple of 13, a book value multiple of 1.6 and a sales multiple of 0.7 - 12 per cent, 68 per cent and 38 per cent discounts to aerospace and defense industry averages. All eight researchers covering Orbital Sciences advocate purchasing its shares.
Bullish Scenario: FBR Capital Markets expects Orbital's stock to double to $30.
6. AMR Corp. owns American Airlines. The company's second-quarter loss narrowed 97 per cent to $11-million, or 3 cents a share, as revenue gained 16 per cent to $5.7-billion. The operating margin climbed from negative territory to positive 3.5 per cent. AMR's stock trades at a sales multiple of 0.1 and a cash flow multiple of 2 -- 91 per cent and 59 per cent discounts to airline peer averages. Of analysts following AMR, eight, or 57 per cent, rate its stock "buy", five rate it "hold" and one ranks it "sell." A median price target of $10.06 suggests 60 per cent of upside. Deutsche Bank offers a $14 target.
Bullish Scenario: Barclays forecasts that AMR's stock will more than triple to $20.
5. Clinical Data Inc. is a biotechnology company. It has several late-stage compounds, including Vilazodone for depression and Stedivaze for cardiac stress. It also sells genetic tests to determine drug response. Its fiscal first-quarter loss narrowed to $14-million, or 51 cents a share, from a loss of $15-million, or 88 cents, a year earlier. Revenue grew 48 per cent. Clinical Data's stock is expensive based on all relative valuation metrics since the company is consistently unprofitable. Still, all six analysts following Clinical Data recommend purchasing its shares.
Bullish Scenario: McNicoll Lewis & Vlak values the stock at $37, suggesting that it will double.
4. Gleacher & Co. is a boutique investment bank. It swung to a second-quarter loss of $5.2-million, or 4 cents a share, from a year-earlier profit. Revenue tumbled 41 per cent to $57-million. The operating margin fell into negative territory. Gleacher's stock trades at a trailing earnings multiple of 7.5, a forward earnings multiple of 6.8, a book value multiple of 0.7 and a sales multiple of 0.7 - 48 per cent, 59 per cent, 61 per cent and 71 per cent discounts to capital markets peer averages. Two analysts rate it "buy" and three rank it "hold." A median target of $4.17 suggests 132 per cent upside.
Bullish Scenario: KBW predicts that Gleacher's stock will soar 176 per cent to $5.
3. GSE Systems Inc. sells simulation and other software to nuclear power, electric utility and chemical companies. Its second-quarter profit fell 35 per cent to $370,000, or 2 cents a share, as revenue gained 11 per cent to $12-million. The operating margin extended from 6.2 per cent to 7.4 per cent. GSE's stock sells for a forward earnings multiple of 11, a book value multiple of 1.6 and a sales multiple of 1.4 - 58 per cent, 68 per cent and 93 per cent discounts to software industry averages. All four analysts following GSE advise purchasing its shares. A median target of $8.15 suggests a 141 per cent return in 12 months.
Bullish Scenario: Benchmark Company values GSE's stock at $9, implying 172 per cent upside.
2. Avanir Pharmaceuticals acquires, develops and commercializes therapeutics. Avanir's fiscal third-quarter loss expanded 15 per cent to $5.7-million, but the per share loss remained steady at 6 cents due to dilution. Revenue fell 17 per cent to $490,000. The operating margin fell further into negative territory. Avanir has $41-million of cash and no debt. Its stock sells for a book value multiple of 10 and a sales multiple of 79 - sizable premiums to pharmaceutical industry averages. All four of the analysts evaluating Avanir recommend purchasing its shares.
Bullish Scenario: Jefferies predicts that Avanir's stock will triple to $10.
1. OncoGenex is a biopharmaceutical company developing therapies for cancer. It swung to a second-quarter profit of $150,000, or 2 cents a share, from a loss of $4.6-million, or 82 cents, a year earlier. Revenue turned positive. OncoGenex has $48-million of cash and $1.3-million of debt. Its stock trades at a sales multiple of 2.9 and a cash flow multiple of 3.6 - 97 per cent and 80 per cent discounts to peer averages. All eight researchers covering OncoGenex rate its stock "buy." A median target of $48.17 suggests the stock will more than triple in 12 months.
Bullish Scenario: Rodman & Renshaw expects the stock to quadruple to $58.